Does Yahoo! Report Impact 2018 March Madness Odds?
- Blue Bloods like Duke, UNC, and Kansas are now implicated in the college basketball scandal.
- Can you safely wager on these teams for the 2018 national title?
- Which March Madness favorites have escaped the investigation so far?
A new story published by Yahoo! Sports has further confirmed what everyone already knew: the biggest and best college basketball recruits have been getting impermissible benefits from agents and schools, violating the NCAA’s rules on amateurism.
This was one of the worst kept secrets in sports, and to some extent, the latest Yahoo! report is old news. But for college basketball bettors, it’s import is massive because it names names.
It will take days, weeks, maybe months to learn how the new allegations will affect the 2018 season and NCAA Tournament. Untouchable coaches could lose their jobs; star players could be suspended; wins and titles could be vacated. Uncertainty is the only certainty at this point.
Online betting sites haven’t had time to adjust to the news just yet, and the movement in the 2018 National Championship futures over the last couple weeks is a product of on-court play. When sportsbooks do adjust, don’t expect any legitimate contenders to fall precipitously, at least not unless heads actually roll.
For practical purposes, that should lead bettors to two related conclusions:
- Now is not the time to bet on schools that have been implicated.
- Now may be the perfect time to bet on schools that haven’t been.
On that note …
Implicated 2018 National Title Contenders
The chart below lists the current title futures for the viable contenders implicated in (a) the latest Yahoo! report or (b) the initial FBI probe. Our definition of “viable contenders” stretches as far as Kentucky, but not as far as Clemson or USC, who were also named in the report. Since we are dealing with odds, the lower the number, the bigger the favorite, so the shortest bars belong to the more-heavily favored teams.
Be particularly cautious with Duke, Michigan State, and Kentucky. The Yahoo! report specifically named Wendell Carter (Duke), Miles Bridges (Michigan State), and Kevin Knox (Kentucky). Also stay away from Arizona for the time being, as star guard Allonzo Trier was just suspended for a failed drug test.
[Update: a new report from ESPN has put Arizona coach Sean Miller in hot water. Definitely steer clear of Arizona at +1500.]
Safe 2018 National Title Contenders
The chart below lists the current title futures for the viable contenders who have not been implicated in any of this season’s college basketball scandals. Again, the shortest bars belong to the more-heavily favored teams.
Based on quality of play, Villanova (+500 average odds) deserves to have the shortest odds right now. Yes, they lost to St. John’s at home, but overall, they navigated a recent spate of injuries well and just spanked Xavier in Cincinnati. This is arguably the most complete team in the nation and still has holdovers from its 2016 title team.
Are they twice as likely to win it all as Purdue (+1100 average odds). Very debatable. The Boilermakers are tremendously balanced, as well, and a little better defensively.
If you are keen to wager on Purdue right now — and again, now may be the best time to do so — sportsbooks have them at +1200. If you’re more inclined to ride with Jalen Brunson and the Wildcats, you can get Nova at +575.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
