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Louisville vs Duke Odds, Lines, and Spread

John Hyslop

by John Hyslop in College Basketball

Feb 26, 2021 · 7:05 PM PST

Matthew Hurt
Wake Forest forward Ody Oguama (33) fouls Duke forward Matthew Hurt (21) on a rebound attempt during an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021, in Winston-Salem, N.C. (Andrew Dye/The Winston-Salem Journal via AP, Pool)
  • The Louisville Cardinals (12-5, 7-4 ACC) take on the Duke Blue Devils (11-8, 9-6 ACC) on Saturday, February 27th 
  • The Blue Devils will try to continue their reign of terror over the ACC after Jalen Johnson left the program
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and our best bet below

The Louisville Cardinals are next up on the Duke Blue Devils’ hit list. The two teams  are set to meet Saturday at the Cameron Indoor Arena in Durham, North Carolina (6 pm ET).

Duke is on an absolute heater at the moment as they have won their last four games including one over then #7 Virginia. Their latest victim was Syracuse in an 85-71 beating Tuesday night.

The Cardinals continued their season last Saturday after getting shutdown for five games due to Covid-19. The return to the court didn’t go as planned as they got waxed by the North Carolina Tar Heels 99-54. The rust was gone by Tuesday as they returned to form and took care of Notre Dame 69-57.

Louisville has taken control of this series winning two of the last three meetings while covering in all of them. The latest odds are showing Duke being favored by 5 points in this matchup.

Louisville vs Duke Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Louisville Cardinals +5 (-110) +190 Over 141.5 (-110)
Duke Blue Devils -5 (-110) -230 Under 141.5 (-110)

Odds as of Feb. 26th at FanDuel.

The Cardinals Answered the Bell

Covid-19 has ravaged sports and life in general and it set its sites on the Louisville Basketball Program at the beginning of February forcing five postponements. When they finally got back on the court after almost three weeks on the sidelines, they got boat raced by North Carolina 99-54. They needed to answer the bell in their last game and they did just that in their 69-57 win over Notre Dame.

Louisville has the nation’s 35th most efficient defense (adjusted for opponent) according to KenPom. That defense more than showed up against the Fighting Irish holding them to just 24 first half points. Notre Dame is 60th in the country averaging 36.2 points in the opening half of games. Defense was again the theme in the second half as the Cardinals cruised to an easy win and cover.

Is Duke Fixed?

Jalen Johnson sent shockwaves through the college basketball landscape when he announced he was leaving Duke to prepare for the NBA draft. It’s been a “down year” for the Blue Devils which obviously contributed to the decision. All Duke has down since Johnson announced his decision is win, which included a smackdown of Syracuse 85-71 in their latest action.

Offense has not been the problem for Duke this season as they rank 12th in the land in efficiency. That offense has been even better over the last three games, especially in the first half averaging 45.3 points per contest. Only three teams in the nation are averaging more over that same time frame. This game was no different as the Blue Devils hung 52 on the Orange in the opening frame and never looked back.

Best Betting Angle

Louisville looked like a defensive force last time out against a very efficient Notre Dame offense but that game was in Louisville. At home this season, the Cardinals are almost nine points per 100 possessions better than they are on the road. That is not a good stat going into the Cameron Indoor Stadium.

There may be a little revenge factor at play here as well being that Louisville already beat Duke this season. That game was even closer than the 70-65 final score would suggest, as the Blue Devils had multiple opportunities to close the gap in the final minute. With the run they are on right now, it is tough to side against the Blue Devils as they could roll Louisville and cover this number in the process.

Pick: Duke -5 (-110)

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