The 2021 NCAA Tournament Has a New Favorite, and They Opened at +2800 Odds

• The Villanova Wildcats were as high as +2800 to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament but are now down to +925
• Villanova will have to replace breakout star Saddiq Bey but almost everyone else from last year’s cast is returning
• Read below for analysis on whether or not the Wildcats are a good value bet at their new odds

Although the 2020 NCAA Tournament was completely canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, hopefully we can get back to normal by the time the 2021 NCAA Tournament rolls around. Looking ahead to it, the Villanova Wildcats opened at +2800 to win the Championship but are now the favorites to win it.

Why the astronomical rise and are they worthy of a bet here? Let’s take a closer look.

2021 NCAA Tournament Odds

Odds updated July 18th.

Villanova’s Odds Continue To Shorten

There has been a lot of jockeying for position in terms of the favorites role in the 2021 March Madness odds. Teams like Virginia, Gonzaga, Baylor and Kansas have all been at or near the top since opening with similar odds, but it’s been Villanova who has rocketed up the board.

Jay Wright – first class coach 👏#FinalFour pic.twitter.com/xpK80ZSUq5

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) April 1, 2018

The Wildcats were originally at +2800 but then have shortened by the month. Their odds trimmed to +1533 in the middle of April, +1000 in the middle of May and are now the favorites. It’s hard to say exactly why they’ve shot up but it appears that one reason for it is the consistency from the roster.

Wildcats Returning Mostly The Same Cast

Since it’s been such an odd offseason and we aren’t exactly sure what’s going to happen in the fall, it appears bettors are liking the Wildcats because they should have a lot of the same faces coming back. There’s no question that the loss of Saddiq Bey – their leading scorer – will hurt but almost everyone else is back.

Last season, all five starters scored in double-figures and while Bey will jump into the 2020 NBA Draft, that still means that Villanova returns one of the most productive starting lineups. This team won seven of their final eight games and returns a very deep and experienced cast for Jay Wright.

Saddiq Bey’s shooting is almost guaranteed to translate to the NBA very easily. Super quick on spot ups and very quick at getting his feet set off the dribble. All 3 of these plays are nba looks pic.twitter.com/DZjDv3RtoF

— Mavs Draft (@MavsDraft) July 18, 2020

While Bey was an important breakout star for the team last season, Wright has options. Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels averaged 16.9 points per game with the Green Wave last season, while guys like Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree or Cole Swider are options. If anyone fills the shoes, this team should be in the running for their third title in six years.

Keep An Eye On NBA Draft Departures

Since the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the sports calendar, we still don’t know who exactly is going and staying in terms of the NBA Draft. That means a team like Gonzaga, who is wondering about the trio of Joel Ayayi, Corey Kispert and Filip Petrusev, could go from favorites to a significant drop if they all leave.

.@LukaG_55 was a scoring machine this season 🏀🔥!

Do you want to see Luka Garza of @IowaHoops to take home the @CitizenWatchUS Naismith Men’s POY? LIKE ❤️ this post to cast an extra fan vote. #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/LGAtmjkR2W

— The Naismith Trophy (@NaismithTrophy) March 24, 2020

Teams like Iowa are still waiting on Luka Garza to make a decision, Stanford is waiting on Tyrell Terry and Arizona State is waiting on Remy Martin. These decisions will have a big impact on the 2020-21 season, so if you’re thinking about betting on these teams futures, make sure you factor the late draft decisions.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, I wouldn’t be betting Villanova as the value has been sucked out of the line. At +2800, they were a great idea because they’re on even footing with all of the favorites and were priced too far off. At +925, they’re down there with all of the favorites, so I can’t see this line getting any shorter.

The greatest characteristic you can have is a great attitude. It's your choice every day when you wake up.

You also have to understand and appreciate the value of hard work. Nothing really matters if you don't give great effort.

Jay Wright on what matters: pic.twitter.com/0cfxhiZOHB

— The Coaches' Journal (@TheCoachJournal) March 18, 2020

If you really like Villanova, I’d wait until the dust settles with the COVID-19 pandemic. Who knows what the college basketball season will look like, if players will be on campus and if teams will travel. We also don’t know all of the NBA declarations at this point. There’s more risk at this point, so I would wait.