St Mary’s vs Gonzaga Picks and Odds
- #1 Gonzaga is a 21-point home favorite over Saint Mary’s on Thursday (Feb. 18th, 9 pm EST)
- The Bulldogs have won 24 straight games dating back to last season
- See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction
#1 Gonzaga appears to be a lock for a 1-seed at the NCAA Tournament next month, but the question now becomes can they finish the regular season undefeated? The Bulldogs (20-0, 11-0 WCC) will look for their 25th straight victory dating back to last season on Thursday (Feb. 18th, 9 pm EST), when they host Saint Mary’s (11-6, 2-4 WCC).
Saint Mary’s vs #1 Gonzaga Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary’s Gaels | +21.0 (-110) | OFF | Over 143.5 (-110) |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | -21.0 (-110) | OFF | Under 143.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Feb. 17th.
Gonzaga opened up as a massive 21-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 143.5. The Zags earned 59 of 64 first place votes in the latest AP Top-25 poll, and are one of just two undefeated teams remaining in the nation, along with #2 Baylor.
Bulldogs Beat Up San Francisco
Gonzaga enters play fresh off a 100-61 rout of San Francisco, their 19th win by double-digits this season. Drew Timme led the way with 28 points and 8 boards, while four other Zags players also reached double figures.
.@drewtimme2 Named @USBWA National Player of the Week
📰Press Release➡️ https://t.co/urAcVeB34d pic.twitter.com/FJO9rtbcR3— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) February 16, 2021
The Bulldogs hit 100 points for the fourth time in 2020-21 and easily covered the 16.5-point spread. As efficient as their offense was (61% from the field), it was Gonzaga’s defense that generated the most buzz post-game. They held the Dons to 35% from the field and 7-of-33 (21.2%) from beyond the arc. They forced 15 turnovers, had six blocks and won the rebounding battle by eight.
All business. pic.twitter.com/pBBnGnOqbS
— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) February 14, 2021
For the season, they rank first in the WCC in opponent field goal percentage, second in defensive rebounding, and third in points allowed per outing. On offense, forget the conference, no team in the nation averages more points per game (93.1) or shoots a higher percentage from the floor (55.1%).
They’ve now won at least 20 games in 24 straight seasons, and it’s hard to imagine they don’t take care of business against a rusty Gaels program.
Saint Mary’s Sluggish in Return
Saint Mary’s has played exactly once since January 23rd due to a COVID outbreak within the team, and that was last Saturday at Pepperdine. The Gael’s dropped a 60-58 decision to the Waves, in large part due to a horrendous shooting performance.
Gaels fight back and tie it in the final seconds but fall to Pepperdine by two. #GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/Ub3OUokuOJ
— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) February 14, 2021
They shot 38.2% from the field, and 4-for-24 (16.7%) from beyond the arc, yet nearly erased a 14-point deficit thanks to a strong defensive effort. Saint Mary’s held Pepperdine below 40% from the field, and under 30% from 3, forcing 15 turnovers along the way.
Defense is the Gaels’ calling card, as they rank first in the WCC in points allowed and made 3’s surrendered, and sixth in opponent field goal percentage.
Offensively however, is a different story. They rank last in points per game (60.8) and 3-point efficiency (28.9%), and second last in field goal percentage (40.7%) and total rebounding.
A combination of strong defense and suspect offense has caused the majority of their games to fall under the total, including their only matchup with Gonzaga earlier this season.
Trending Under
In that meeting, a 73-59 Bulldogs win, Gonzaga failed to cover as 16-point favorites and the game came in well below the 146.5 total. Oddsmakers have adjusted the over/under for this matchup accordingly, but it still may be a shade high. The under is 10-7 in Gaels’ games, and 6-1 in their outings away from home.
The Bulldogs meanwhile, have seen eight of their 11 conference games stay under the number, including six of eight at home.
*strictly buckets*@JalenSuggs2020 pic.twitter.com/QChQFY2fRy
— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) February 13, 2021
Sure, Gonzaga is likely to approach 90 points on its own, but the fact that they only put up 73 in their last meeting with Saint Mary’s, their lowest total all year, can’t be ignored. Also working in the under’s favor is only three of the Gaels’ 17 games have gone over 143.5 points.
Pick: Under 143.5 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
