Tennessee vs Kentucky Picks and Odds

• #11 Tennessee is a 3.5-point road favorite over Kentucky on Saturday (Feb. 6th, 8 pm EST)
• The under is 11-5 in Wildcats games this season, and 4-0 in Volunteers road contests
• See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The 2020-21 Kentucky Wildcats season has been a giant disappointment. John Calipari’s team continues to struggle and have now lost five of their past six after a 75-70 defeat to #18 Missouri last time out.

The Wildcats (5-11, 4-5 SEC) are an afterthought when it comes to March Madness, and will look to avoid another home loss on Saturday (Feb. 6th, 8 pm EST) against #11 Tennessee (12-4, 5-4 SEC)

#11 Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds

Odds taken Feb. 5th at FanDuel.

The Volunteers opened up as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday, in a game that features a total of 124.5. Tennessee has been plagued by inconsistency recently, beating a ranked Kansas program two games ago, but falling to an average Ole Miss squad in their last outing.

Tennessee Stymied by Ole Miss

The Volunteers put up just 50 points against the Rebels in a 2-point defeat, failing to cover as 3.5-point road favorites. They coughed up an 11-point first half lead, missed 11 straight shots down the stretch and shot just 35.6% from the floor.

Tennessee-Kentucky and UNC-Duke play in primetime this Saturday

And Tennessee is the only ranked team

— Austin B (@Austin_Vols) February 5, 2021

They committed 16 turnovers and allowed Ole Miss to pick up its first win over a ranked team in more than two years. Yves Pons led the way with 13, while Keon Johnson chipped in 11. It was the second time this season they’ve failed to eclipse 51 points, but what’s concerning is they’ve scored 56 points or less in three of their past five contests.

😑 pic.twitter.com/vaNdLvXdbH

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) February 3, 2021

The offense has been a big disappointment in conference play, ranking 12th in points per game and shooting percentage, but fortunately they’ve been bailed out by their defense.

The Vols rank number one in defensive efficiency by KenPom’s metrics, and lead the SEC in points allowed per game, while ranking fourth in opponent field goal percentage.

Wildcats Singing the Blues

Kentucky meanwhile, dug themselves a 13-point hole against Missouri that they just couldn’t overcome. Davion Mintz led the way with 18 points in a losing effort, while Keion Brooks Jr. and Brandon Boston Jr. each added 10.

pic.twitter.com/rBAwTlwJkn

— Kentucky Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) February 4, 2021

After starting 3-1 in the conference, they’ve now dropped four of five to SEC opponents, putting them below .500 in conference play for the first time since February of 2018. They sport a 5-11 mark overall, a record largely impacted by some horrendous shooting numbers.

The Wildcats rank 217th nationally in field goal percentage, and 296th from beyond the arc. They’re 13th out of 14 SEC teams in points per game, and are only staying in games because of their defense.

Outscored Mizzou 10-1 since the half.

Big minutes and big blocks by @lanceware12.

Mizzou 41, UK 37 | 2H, 15:30 pic.twitter.com/qpGiLCAMZt

— Kentucky Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) February 4, 2021

Kentucky is fifth in the conference in scoring defense, and second in opponent field goal percentage, blocks and defensive rebounding.

Play the Under

The Wildcats stingy defense and underwhelming offense has led to the vast majority of their games coming in under the total. The under is 11-5 in Kentucky games this season and 4-1 in conference play. Six of the seven times they’ve been an underdog the game has gone under, as well as three of the four times they’ve faced ranked opposition.

Tennessee games have been cashing under tickets at a high rate as well, as the under is hitting 60% of the time, including all four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Volunteers have held five of their last seven opponents under 65 points, and should have no problem keeping the Wildcats offense in check as well.

Pick: Under 124.5 (-105)