Should You Bet Duke or The Field in the 2019 March Madness Futures?
- Duke is only +159 underdog versus the field to win the NCAAM National Championship
- The Blue Devils have the best efficiency rating in College Basketball but they’re not without faults
- Which side is the better value?
The Duke Blue Devils are good. Scary good.
They’re the NCAA’s version of a superteam, full of basketball phenoms who produce highlights usually reserved for video games.
Light windmill @ZionW32 ?✈️? pic.twitter.com/siCb3aQM0e
— Duke Basketball (@DukeMBB) November 20, 2018
They were a +500 preseason favorite to win the National Championship, and after starting the season 9-1, those odds have been shortened to +180.
One site is even more bullish on the Blue Devils and has assigned them +159 odds vs The Field to emerge victorious from March Madness.
Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Basketball National Championship
| NCAAM National Championship Game Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke | +159 |
| Field | -182 |
The Case for Duke
They’re the number one team in the kenpom.com efficiency ratings, and they’re led by three of the top four projected picks in 2019 NBA Draft, including College Basketball’s most efficient player.
They rank second in the Nation in offensive efficiency, 5th in defensive efficiency, and are outscoring their opponents by an average of 27.2 points per game.
Serve it up. ???? @ZionW32 @RjBarrett6 ??? #SCTop10 #DukeMBBTop5 pic.twitter.com/ddhzH8jWpz
— Duke Basketball (@DukeMBB) December 6, 2018
Aside from their lone blemish against Gonzaga, the Blue Devils haven’t played a game that was closer than 21 points.
30 for RJ tonight. 20 for Zion. And here’s a photo of the only teammates both averaging 20+ PPG among power-conference teams. ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Rs1HIcxhKy
— Duke Basketball (@DukeMBB) December 9, 2018
Potential Problems for Duke
It’s hard to poke holes in a juggernaut, but they’re not without faults. Rim rocking dunks like this get all the attention.
Zion Williamson is going to absolutely destroy the NFL Combine. pic.twitter.com/63HqM1UY2i
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 15, 2018
But their outside shooting has been pedestrian. Duke ranks 218th nationally from behind the arc and no player on their roster is shooting above 38% from three.
They’re also a poor free throw shooting team, hitting just 65% from the charity stripe.
These issues have largely gone unnoticed due to the soft schedule they’ve played, but once they start facing some tougher defenses it could be a real problem.
The Math Favors the Field
In order for Duke to be a break-even wager at +159 they’d need to win the NCAA Championship 38.6% of the time.
If you think they’d win 39 out of every 100 times they played this tournament then fire away. But before you do, consider this: the Blue Devils would need to be an 8-point favorite, on average, in each of their final four tournament games to be assigned a Championship win probability of 40%.
Last year’s champion Villanova was a 6.5-point favorite in the title game and they had a KenPom rating three points higher than Duke.
Furthermore, there hasn’t been a single Championship game in the last 19 years with a favorite of more than 7.5 points.
Duke is good, but their odds are way too short.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
