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Early 2021 March Madness Bettors Are Hammering These Five Teams

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 29, 2021 · 1:06 PM PDT

Luka Garza pressured by defender, looking to pass
Iowa center Luka Garza looks to pass around Nebraska forward Derrick Walker, right, during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Thursday, March 4, 2021, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 102-64. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
  • Iowa, Villanova, Tennessee, West Virginia and UCLA have seen significant movement to their 2021 March Madness odds
  • The Hawkeyes have seen the biggest move, going from +5000 to +3375
  • Read below to see if  any of these programs worth backing

In a world where the Coronavirus didn’t exist, we’d be less than two weeks removed from crowning the 2020 NCAA men’s basketball champion. Unfortunately, due to the COVID-19 outbreak, we’ll never know who would have won this year’s national championship and we still have no clue when college and pro sports will resume in North America.

Despite the uncertainty, bettors have been flocking to the online windows to plunk down cash on their favorite college basketball futures. Five teams in particular have seen significant movement to their 2021 March Madness odds, but none more so than Iowa.

2021 March Madness Odds

Team Odds
Gonzaga Bulldogs +950
Virginia Cavaliers +1025
Kentucky Wildcats +1200
Kansas Jayhawks +1350
Baylor Bears +1450
Creighton Blue Jays +1450
Villanova Wildcats +1467
Duke Blue Devils +1475
Michigan State Spartans +1650
Florida State Seminoles +2000
North Carolina Tar Heels +2000
Michigan Wolverines +2200
Wisconsin Badgers +2275
West Virginia Mountaineers +2350
Texas Tech Red Raiders +2725
Iowa Hawkeyes +3375
Tennessee Volunteers +3825
UCLA Bruins +4100

Odds taken April 18th

The Hawkeyes, who were +5000 to win it all a month ago, have seen their odds shortened to +3375. There’s potential for them to return all five starters from 2019-20, but that will depend on whether or not Luke Garza pursues his NBA dream.

Will Garza Stay or Will He Go?

Iowa was ranked 25th in the AP poll and 23rd in KenPom’s efficiency metrics when the season was cancelled. A huge reason for their success was the play of Garza, who finished runner-up in the Player of the Year race.

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The 6’11” junior averaged 23.9 points per game and became the first player in 23 years to score at least 20 in 16 straight Big Ten contests. Last week he decided to enter the NBA Draft process without an agent, meaning he’ll maintain his college eligibility if he chooses to back out of the Draft.

The good news for Hawkeye backers is that Garza isn’t projected to be a first round pick, meaning the likelihood of him returning to school is fairly high. If he returns to campus, Iowa becomes a great value at +3375 and an unbelievable steal for those who pulled the trigger at +5000. If however, he leaves for good I’d look elsewhere.

Wildcats Have Plenty of Bite

Another program bettors are bullish on for good reason is Villanova. The Wildcats have won two of the past five national titles and the 2020-21 version of this team will be stacked with or without Saddiq Bey.

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‘Nova’s leading scorer is expected to leave for the NBA, but hasn’t ruled out a return entirely. Even if he does depart, the Wildcats’ roster will still feature four players who scored in double figures last season, plus former five-star recruit Bryan Antoine, who barely played in 2019-20 because of a shoulder injury.

This is a team that finished strong last season winning seven of its last eight to earn a share of the Big East crown. A month ago they were a much better bet at +2300, but even at +1467 there’s some value to be found and there’s no doubt they belong in the championship conversation.

The Other Big Movers

Tennessee (+5333 to +3875), UCLA (+5000 to +4100)and West Virginia (+2800 to +2375) make up the rest of the group who saw significant odds movement in their favor, and of those three the Volunteers stand out if Yves Pons opts to return. The junior wing has only recently been involved in NBA Draft chatter, but if he doesn’t bolt for the pros, Tennessee will return every non-senior from last season’s roster.

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The only thing lacking from the 2019-20 edition of the Volunteers was stability at point guard, but that will change now that Lamonte Turner is fully healthy. Tennessee is also bringing in an elite recruiting class and should compete with Kentucky for top spot in the SEC. Their new price tag isn’t as appealing as it once was, but it still offers plenty of value.

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