- Louisville visits Florida State tomorrow (4:00 PM ET)
- The Seminoles have won four straight games; the Cardinals have won seven of their last eight
- Louisville is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings
The Louisville Cardinals are in the midst of their toughest stretch of the season. Saturday marks their third consecutive game against a top 25-ranked opponent. They’ll visit the No. 22 Florida State Seminoles (4:00 PM ET), who find themselves as a small home favorite in this contest at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee.
Louisville vs Florida State Odds
|Team||Spread at BetOnline||Moneyline||Over/Under|
|Louisville||+2.5 (-110)||N/A||O 145 (-110)|
|Florida State||-2.5 (-110)||N/A||U 145 (-110)|
*Odds taken 02/02
Louisville Cardinals Outlook
Louisville has been on fire since January 12th, winning seven of their last eight games. They went into Chapel Hill and smoked the Tar Heels, handing them their worst-ever home less in the Roy Williams era. Their only loss in this stretch was when the Tar Heels got a chance at revenge last Saturday, handing the Cardinals a 79-69 loss at the Yum Center.
Louisville quickly rebounded with a 72-64 win at No. 11 Virginia Tech on Monday. Chris Mack has this team playing really well right now and he’s probably the frontrunner to win ACC Coach of the Year.
Chris Mack isn’t here for your nonsense, ESPN. 😂pic.twitter.com/vfYEsjeEbJ
— MyBookie Sportsbook (@betmybookie) February 5, 2019
The concern here is Louisville’s accomplishments on the road. Yes, they have won four in a row away from home, but they’ve also lost at Seton Hall and at Pittsburgh. Neither of those teams have more than 13 wins. There’s no question this team is more confident at home.
Louisville vs Florida State Statistical Comparison
|17-6 (5-2 away)||Record||17-5 (10-1 home)|
|8-2 (4th)||Conference Record (Standing)||5-4 (7th)|
|+23.41 (13th)||Overall Efficiency Rating||+19.50 (22nd)|
|78.8 (44th)||Points Per Game||77.0 (68th)|
|+116.8 (15th)||Offensive Efficiency Rating||112.4 (31st)|
|68.0 (75)||Points Against Per Game||68.3 (82nd)|
|93.4 (22nd)||Defensive Efficiency Rating||92.9 (18th)|
Florida State Seminoles Outlook
The Seminoles started the season 12-1, hit a huge rough patch, and are now back on track with four straight wins. They’re back in contention for the double-bye at the ACC Tournament. The question is, what happened in that dry spell?
— FSU Seminoles (@Seminoles) February 6, 2019
In that span, the Seminoles dropped four of five, but some of that can be explained. A loss at No. 4 Virginia and at home to No. 1 Duke can be forgiven. The other two losses were on the road. At home, this team has been far more reliable but they haven’t really played anyone at home besides Duke.
In short, they’ve beat the teams they should beat, struggled against top-notch competition and struggled on the road. The question is whether or not Louisville is an elite ACC team – especially when they’re on the road.
|Louisville Trends||Florida State Trends|
|LOU has covered four straight road games||FSU is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Saturday games|
|LOU is 5-2-1 ATS in last 7 Saturday games||FSU has covered three of their last four overall|
|LOU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall||Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings|
|LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600||Under is 4-1-1 in Seminoles last 6 Saturday games|
|LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win||Seminoles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win|
This is the first meeting between the teams this season. They split their two showdowns last year, each winning on the opponent’s home court. They only met once in the 2016-17 season when Louisville lost at Florida State.
Cardinals vs Seminoles Pick
Florida State has won four straight and they are at home here, but I’m not comfortable laying points with a team that hasn’t earned many quality wins . Yes, the jury might still be out on Louisville but their big win on the road at Virginia Tech told us a lot. Take them with the points in this spot.
Pick: Cardinals +2.5 (-110)