Cincinnati vs Houston – Odds and Picks for AAC Championship Game

• Cincinnati faces Houston for the American Athletic Conference Tournament championship on Sunday at 3:15 pm ET
• The Bearcats need to win to get a berth in March Madness, while Houston should be a top-three seed regardless
• Get the odds, analysis, and prediction for the 2021 AAC title game

The Cincinnati Bearcats (12-10, 8-6 AAC) have a chance to salvage their disappointing season this afternoon when they face the No. 7 Houston Cougars (23-3, 14-3 AAC) in the American Athletic Conference Tournament championship game at 3:15 pm ET at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX.

However, if the Bearcats are going to punch their ticket to the dance, the will have to do it as massive 13.5-point underdogs against what some ratings systems consider to be the second-best team in the entire nation.

Cincinnati vs Houston Odds

Odds as of March 14th at DraftKings.

The lone meeting between these AAC rivals in the regular season was a laugher, ending in a 90-52 Houston victory. Cincinnati kept it close until about the nine-minute mark, when the score was 20-19. From there, the Cougars went on a 30-7 run to end the half, taking a 50-26 lead into the break. They didn’t let up, growing the lead to 73-30 by the 26-minute mark and finishing with a 38-point victory.

Houston, as one might imagine, covered the spread, which closed at 12.5

Bearcats Surging at the Right Time

Cincinnati came into the season with reasonably high expectations. They were rated 59th at KenPom and coming off a 20-10 (13-5 AAC) season last year, which earned them a share of the AAC regular-season title. (The conference tournament was cancelled due to coronavirus.)

There was also plenty of doubt as senior point guard Jarron Cumberland, who led the team in scoring (15.5 PPG) and assists (4.9 APG), was graduating. John Brannen’s team needed some time to find its footing, starting the year on an ugly 3-7 skid before winning seven of its final ten to finish the regular season at .500.

Their best regular-season win came at SMU (#59 at KenPom) in early January (76-69). They started the AAC Tournament with another upset over the Mustangs (74-71) as 5.5-point underdogs. In the semis, they handed top-seeded Wichita State a 60-59 loss as four-point dogs.

Senior guard Keith Williams, who led the team at 14.6 PPG in the regular season, has been solid so far, dropping 14 against SMU plus an efficient nine-point, five-rebound, three-assist performance in the low-scoring game against the Shockers.

Sophomore Jeremiah Davenport paced the Bearcats with 19 points against SMU before adding eight points and a team-high nine boards versus Wichita.

Cincinnati’s shaky regular-season led to their rating at KenPom slipping from 59th to 110th entering today’s game.

Cougars Are a Beast

While the Bearcats have steadily slipped down the DI hierarchy, the Houston Cougars have made a (mostly) steady rise. They too came into the year with high expectations as the 21st-rated team at KenPom. After a 21-3 regular season, they had risen all the way to sixth, and that was despite AAC Preseason Player of the Year Caleb Mills being limited to four games before transferring to Florida State.

Over at Bart Torvik’s T-Rank ratings, Houston is the second-best team in the entire country, trailing only Gonzaga.

In his second season in Houston, Kentucky-transfer Quentin Grimes has been phenomenal. The 6’5 guard averaged 17.6 PPG and a 6.1 RPG  on his way to earning AAC co-Player of the Year honors (which he shared with Wichita’s Tyson Etienne).

Houston’s best wins on the year are a 64-52 victory over Texas Tech (23rd at KenPom) on a neutral court back in November, plus a perfect 4-0 record in games against SMU (59th) and Memphis (39th). All three of their losses came in true road games, to the extent that any game this season is a true road game.

Their AAC Tournament has consisted of a 77-52 demolition of overmatched Tulane in the quarterfinals, plus a narrow 76-74 win over Memphis yesterday. After Houston took a 12-point lead into halftime, Memphis put together a 12-1 run early in the second and it was a nail-biter from there.

Houston didn’t cover as seven-point chalk against the Tigers, who played them tight in both games this season.

Grimes was excellent again, scoring a team-high 21 points on 7-15 shooting (5-8 from three) while adding six rebounds. Three other Cougars scored in double figures: Justin Gorham (15), Marcus Sasser (14), and Dejon Jarreau (11).

Prediction

The Cougars play at a hyper-slow pace (322nd in Division I) and will be inclined to get their key cogs a bit of rest if this game is in control late. Meanwhile, Cincinnati should be fighting to the finish in what will be there final game of the season if they lose.

Take the improving Bearcats to put in a much more respectable performance in their second meeting with the AAC’s new power.

Pick: Cincinnati +13.5 (-109)