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Dayton vs St. Louis Odds and Picks

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Jan 25, 2021 · 5:04 PM PST

Jordan Goodwin dribbling with left hand
Saint Louis' Jordan Goodwin heads to the basket during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against George Washington Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2020, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • No. 22 Saint Louis will play for the first time in 34 days when it hosts Dayton at Chaifetz Arena at 8:30pm ET Tuesday
  • Dayton enters after its lowest-scoring game in four years and its worst-shooting game in five
  • See the odds, analysis and our betting prediction in the preview below

No. 22 Saint Louis (7-1, 0-0 Atlantic-10) hosts Dayton Tuesday night, its first game since a 62-46 home victory over UMKC on Dec. 23 after pausing team activities on Dec. 30 to adhere to COVID-19 protocols. The Billikens, who had double-digit positive cases, missed 23 days of practice before getting back on the floor last Friday.

Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Dayton Flyers +310 +8.5 (-118) 133.5 (Over-110)
St. Louis Billikens -390 -8.5 (-104) 133.5 (Under-110)

Odds from FanDuel Jan. 25

Moving Up Without Playing

St. Louis is the highest-rated A-10 team in adjusted efficiency margin, adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the KenPom rankings, and it is in the top 40 among all NCAA Division I teams in each category. The Billikens’ strength of schedule rating is 238th, however, lowest in the conference.

The Billikens are 7-0 at home, their only loss coming as a two-point road favorite at No. 21  Minnesota on Dec. 20. They have beaten LSU and North Carolina State. Their first seven conference games were postponed, and none have been rescheduled.

Saint Louis has enhanced its status in the AP poll despite not playing. The Billikens rose three spots to No. 22 in the most recent poll and has been ranked for four straight weeks, all coming after its last game. They are ranked for the first time since the 2013-14 season.

“I would not say we are starting from scratch, but we are reviewing everything from the beginning,” St. Louis coach Travis Ford told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on Saturday. “I’m trying to figure out how hard can I push them, and how much rest do they need.”

Dayton Looks to Recover After Lopsided Loss

Dayton (8-4, 4-3) swept the season series with the Billikens last season and has won six of the last nine, including two of the last four in St. Louis, but the Flyers will enter this game off its most lopsided loss in the last three seasons and its the lowest-scoring game in coach Anthony Grant’s four seasons.

The Flyers tied a school futility record with 13 points in the first half of a 66-43 loss at Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday, and their 30.9% shooting from the field was their worst since shooting the same 30.9% in a 61-57 loss to La Salle on Jan. 9, 2016. Dayton’s previous low point total under Grant came in a 71-53 loss at La Salle on Feb. 28, 2018.

Senior guards Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson, the Flyers’ two top scorers, were a combined 4-for-17 from the floor against VCU. Crutcher, who averages 18.3 points a game, had a season-low four. Freshman guard Luke Frazier, the Ohio Division II high school player of the year in 2019-20 after averaging 22.2 points per game, played his first game against VCU after recovering from an appendectomy.

Dayton has beaten Power 6 teams Mississippi and Mississippi State this season. It is 3-2 on the road, 2-1 as a road underdog.

YouTube video

Flooding The Floor With Talent

Dayton guard Crutcher and Saint Louis guard Jordan Goodwin were  named to the A-10 all-conference first team in 2019-20, and Goodwin, a 6-foot-3 guard, is making a case to succeed departed Dayton forward Obi Toppin as the A-10 player of the year.

Saint Louis forward Hasahn French was named to the second team last season, Saint Louis wing Javonte Perkins won the sixth man award. French and Goodwin were named to the league’s all-defensive team, and Saint Louis guard Yuri Collins was named to the all-rookie team.

Crutcher ranks fifth in the league in scoring this season, while Perkins (17.8) and Goodwin (16.9) are sixth and eighth, respectively. Goodwin is averaging 11.1 rebounds per game, tops in the league and eighth in Division I. Saint Louis leads the conference in both field goal (51%) and three-point shooting (41%).

The pick: Dayton (plus +8.5)

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