Dayton vs UMass Predictions & Odds (Feb. 22)
- The Dayton Flyers are 7.5-point favorites over the UMass Minutemen Wednesday night
- Dayton is looking for their fourth straight win, while UMass just snapped a 5-game slide
- See below for the latest Dayton vs UMass odds, plus analysis and best bets
Well on their way to a top-4 seed for the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament — which comes with a bye to the quarterfinals — the Dayton Flyers (18-9, 10-4 A-10) will look for their fourth straight win as they visit the UMass Minutemen (14-13, 5-10 A-10).
Dayton is looking up at only VCU in the standings, and can close to within a game of top spot with a win as the regular season winds down.
The Minutemen snapped an ugly 5-game slide with a win at Rhode Island. At 13th in the A-10, their only hope for postseason play would be an unlikely win at the end-of-year conference tourney, and the lone automatic NCAA Tournament berth that comes with it.
The college basketball odds have visiting Dayton as 7.5-point favorites, in a game that features a total of 137.5.
Dayton vs UMass Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Flyers | -7.5 (-110) | -330 | O 137.5 (-110) |
| UMass Minutemen | +7.5 (-110) | +275 | U 137.5 (-110) |
Odds as of February 21st at DraftKings. See the latest on Massachusetts sports betting.
It all gets underway Wednesday (Feb 22) at 7pm ET from the William D. Mullins Memorial Center in Amherst, MA. You can watch the game live on CBSSN.
Dayton vs UMass Betting Analysis
The Flyers are coming off a 65-49 win over the Loyola Chicago Ramblers last time out.
Daron Holmes II led the attack, scoring 20 points, adding 10 boards and three assists. Toumani Camara also played well, finishing with 17 points, five rebounds and two steals.
As always, Dayton’s defense shined through, holding the Ramblers to 30.5% shooting from the field, including a dismal 5-for-24 shooting mark from three-point range. That’s a lowly 20.8% clip.
𝐇𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐭 𝐀𝐥𝐥 😈
#1 in the A-10 in Defensive Rebounds
#13 in the A-10 in Blocks
#14 in the A-10 in StealsCamara is the ONLY player in the @A10MBB in the Top 15 in ALL 3 categories‼️ pic.twitter.com/LNikFgVSRl
— Dayton Basketball (@DaytonMBB) February 21, 2023
On the year, the Flyers are 11th in the NCAA in scoring defense, limiting teams to 60.7 points per game. On the year, they’re holding teams to 38.9% shooting from the field, the 9th-best mark in the nation. They’re ranked a stout 36th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive ranking. That makes up for an offense that scores just 68.9 points per game, 247th in the nation.
UMass got its first win in six February games with a 69-45 win over the Rhode Island Rams. Keon Thompson was the high scorer, putting up 15 points, to go along with six rebounds and five dimes. RJ Luis chipped in with 14 points and seven rebounds, while Tafara Gapare came off the bench for 11 points and seven boards.
Showtime ✨@RjLuis21 🤝 @WildensLeveque #Flagship 🚩 pic.twitter.com/EdCuaF70DM
— UMass Men's Basketball (@UMassMBB) February 18, 2023
The Minutemen aren’t a high-scoring team, their 71.1 points per game ranks 185th in the NCAA, and their adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom is a dismal 225th.
There’s a glaring difference on the defensive end, where UMass surrenders 71.2 points per game, good for 224th in the nation, and teams are putting up a 49.7% effective field goal percentage, slotting them in at 143rd.
Dayton vs UMass Prediction
Dayton has dominated this head-to-head, winning the last six by an average of 15.1 points. You have to go back to 2018 to find a UMass victory, an 86-82 decision in overtime.
The Flyers enter this one having not allowed their last three opponents to top 58 points, and the under has gone 4-0 in each of their last four contests.
UMass has been great to bet against of late, as they have covered just one of their last six games. They’re also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a win.
Dayton vs UMass Head-to-Head
| 2nd | Atlantic 10 Conference Rank | 13th |
| 18-9 | Record | 14-13 |
| 68.9 | Points per Game | 71.1 |
| 60.7 | Points Against per Game | 71.2 |
| 53.1% | Effective FG% | 47.5% |
| 44.4% | Opponent Effective FG% | 49.7% |
Despite winning five of their last six games, Dayton has not been blowing out the competition. In fact, only two of the last six games have they won by more than this 7.5-point listing.
Which leads us to the the total. One strength of both teams is three-point shooting defense. Dayton is stingy from distance, holding teams to 28.2% from beyond the arc, the 5th-best mark in the NCAA, while UMass is tied with a glut of teams at 95th, holding teams to 32.3%,
With little long-distance bombing on tap, and a pair of so-so offenses, let’s grab the under.
Pick: UNDER 137.5 (-110)
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
