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Despite Knocking Off Duke, Michigan State Not Listed as Favorites to Win NCAA Tournament

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 3:04 PM PDT

Michigan State Spartans mascot
Michigan State has its eyes on the prize entering the Final Four. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga (flickr) [CC License].
  • Michigan State has the second shortest odds to win March Madness
  • The Spartans pulled off a big upset by defeating the Duke Blue Devils on Sunday
  • MSU’s Tom Izzo has the most experience of all of the coaches remaining

The Michigan State Spartans knocked off the No. 1 seeded Duke Blue Devils on Sunday. The Spartans have been dealing with injuries all season and this wasn’t supposed to be Tom Izzo’s best squad, but here they are in the Final Four. They might be the most balanced team remaining, so is Sparty a good bet to win it all?

2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds

Team 2019 NCAA Tournament Odds
Virginia +145
Michigan State +175
Texas Tech +450
Auburn +650

*Odds taken 04/01/19

Michigan State has Impressed

The Spartans have impressed in the NCAA Tournament. They won their first three games by double digits and then slayed the dragon, ousting No. 1 Duke in the Elite Eight. Even so, it doesn’t seem like they’re getting much love. It’s in fact Virginia who has the shortest odds to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament championship at +145, while Michigan State is at +175.

Do You Want to Bet Against Izzo?

Putting aside the x’s and o’s, Izzo is the most experienced of the four remaining coaches in these situations. He’s been to eight Final Fours, but it’s the first Final Four appearance for each of the other three head coaches.

Texas Tech Offers Great Value

I know that there’s a lot of hype surrounding Auburn and Michigan State right now, and Virginia is the only No. 1 seed remaining, but I’m willing to take a shot with Texas Tech at this price tag.

I’ll admit that I was wrong about this team. We’ve seen their offense disappear at times this season but it hasn’t happened of late. More importantly, their defense, which was already the best in the country, has been even better in the NCAA Tournament.

Red Raiders Haven’t Had to Sweat… Much

Texas Tech really hasn’t had to sweat too much in any of their games. They won their first three games by at least 15 points and then stayed in control against Gonzaga down the stretch. Gonzaga pushed them a little bit, but Texas Tech led the final 11:58 of the game. That’s nothing in comparison to the other three Final Four teams.

Auburn needed overtime, Virginia needed a miracle and then overtime, and Michigan State won by a point after Duke missed a free throw at the end of the game.

Texas Tech Has Already Seen it All

What I like about Texas Tech is that they won’t face an opponent that does something that they haven’t seen. They already beat the best defensive team in the tournament as Michigan was ranked second behind them in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also beat Gonzaga, who were first in the category in terms of offense.

If Auburn is who they meet, they’ve already topped offensive juggernauts like Gonzaga and Buffalo. If it’s Virginia, I could see Virginia’s mediocre offense getting choked out by Texas Tech. Michigan State will present a challenge as they are probably the most balanced team Tech has seen. I still like the Red Raiders chances on the spread there and on the futures to win it all.

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