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Duke Opens ACC Schedule as 5.5-Point Favorites at Virginia Tech – Picks & Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 8:28 AM PDT

Mike Krzyzewski draws up a play
The odds of the Duke Blue Devils winning the 2020 NCAA Championship climbed from +900 to +1000 following Tuesday's stunning 85-83 loss to Stephen F. Austin. Photo by D. Myles Cullen (Flickr)
  • No. 10 Duke just handled No. 11 Michigan State with relative ease
  • Virginia Tech also beat Michigan State, but has lost its past two
  • These teams split a pair of close games last season

Is it seriously conference play already in NCAA men’s basketball? Well, yes and no.

Virginia Tech hosts Duke on Friday in the schools’ first ACC action of the year, but it’s a strange one-off with a handful of non-conference games left to play. It may not look like a flashy matchup, with the No. 10 Blue Devils squaring off with the unranked Hokies, but there is plenty of intrigue and a fairly tight spread to pay attention to.

The Blue Devils are currently +900 in 2020 NCAA Tournament odds and enter Friday’s game as 5.5-point favorites in the Duke vs Va Tech odds.

Duke vs Virginia Tech Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Duke N/A -5.5 (-105) Ov 141.5 (-105)
Virginia Tech N/A +5.5 (-115) Un 141.5 (-115)

Odds taken Dec. 5

A Common Opponent Already?

As ACC foes, it’s normal for Duke and Virginia Tech to have a plethora of common opponents to compare them to. But ACC play hasn’t started yet. Still, they already have a common opponent in Michigan State.

A week and a half ago, the Hokies stunned the Spartans in the Maui Invitational as 13-point underdogs.

Then on Tuesday, Duke had its turn taking down the Spartans, maintaining a double-digit lead throughout the second half.

It’s an impressive non-conference win for both teams, but Duke pulled it off with more style points.

Major Injury for Duke

On Friday, freshman shooting guard Cassius Stanley suffered a non-contact leg injury against Winthrop while driving to the basket for a layup. It was initially feared that he’d suffered a knee injury, but coach Mike Krzyzewski later identified it as a hamstring injury that will allow Stanley to return “hopefully right after Christmas.”

Stanley, a four-star recruit and the No. 3 shooting guard in the 2019 freshman class, has had a major impact so far, averaging 12.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. Oh, and his athleticism is off the charts.

The loss for the Blue Devils is a big one. Then again, he didn’t play against Michigan State and the team fared just fine.

Last Year’s Matchups

Duke and Virginia Tech met twice last year, with the Hokies taking the regular season matchup (77-72) and Duke taking the NCAA Tournament matchup (75-73). The Hokies have covered single-digit spreads in four of their past five games against Duke.

But both teams use a handful of freshmen, who will be facing each other for the first time on Friday. So it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into past results.

Against the Spread

Duke is only 4-4 against the spread, which sounds bad without context. But in each ATS loss, the Blue Devils were double-digit favorites (including three games in which they were more than 20-point favorites). Sometimes that’s just hard to cover.

Virginia Tech is 5-3 ATS, including 2-1 as the underdog. But the Hokies have lost back-to-back games (both straight up and ATS), which isn’t a great sign.

Decision Time

I might tread more lightly if Stanley had just gotten hurt, but seeing how Duke responded in his absence against a highly-regarded Michigan State team gives me more confidence that the Blue Devils are for real.

Pick: Duke -5.5

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