Upcoming Match-ups

Gonzaga Favored by 3.5 Over Oregon in Battle 4 Atlantis Semifinals: Picks & Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 10:40 AM PDT

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Killian Tillie
Killian Tillie will be back in the Gonzaga lineup when the Bulldogs meet Oregon on Thursday, Nov. 28. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)
  • No. 8 Gonzaga blew out Southern Miss., 94-69, yesterday
  • No. 11 Oregon snuck by No. 13 Seton Hall, 71-69
  • The Ducks and Bulldogs haven’t met since 1999

Different paths brought No. 8 Gonzaga and No. 11 Oregon together in Thursday’s Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal (4:00 PM ET).

The Bulldogs wiped out Southern Mississippi, whose only wins this year have come against non-Division I opponents. The Ducks, on the other hand, needed some last-minute magic to knock off a tough Seton Hall team.

Even at this stage in the season, every game plays a role in the 2020 NCAA Tournament odds — and a win in this semifinal would add a nice line to either team’s resume.

Here’s a look at the Gonzaga vs. Oregon odds heading into Thursday’s game.

Oregon vs. Gonzaga Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Oregon +156 +3.5 (-103) Over 142.5 (-125)
Gonzaga -176 -3.5 (-117) Under 142.5 (+105)

Odds taken Nov. 28.

About Last Night

Gonzaga’s spot in the Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal was never in doubt, as the Bulldogs cruised against the overmatched Golden Eagles. According to KenPom, Gonzaga’s win probability throughout the game never dipped below 95.6 percent.

The Bulldogs shot 68.4 percent (13-for-19) from three-point range, led by Corey Kispert, whose 7-for-8 performance from beyond the arc helped him score a game-high 28 points.

It was quite a different tale for the Ducks, who trailed by 19 in the second half and had only an 18.9 percent win probability in the game’s final two minutes. Oregon finished the game on a 14-2 run, however, to shock Seton Hall and slip into the next round.

Strength Of Schedule

Gonzaga (7-0) and Oregon (6-0) both boast perfect records. They will also be each other’s toughest opponent to this point. But it’d be fair to assume Oregon is more battle tested, given who the Ducks have had to face so far.

According to KenPom.com — which ranks Gonzaga as the No. 5 team and Oregon as the No. 16 team — the Ducks have already faced three top-50 opponents (Memphis, Houston and Seton Hall). The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have faced only one top-100 opponent (Texas A&M, No. 95) to go with five opponents ranked No. 230 or worse.

To put it another way, Gonzaga has been at least a 25-point favorite in six of its seven games, while Oregon has been a single-digit favorite in three of its six games.

While it’s unfair to downgrade Gonzaga for simply beating the teams on its schedule, it’s worth acknowledging that Oregon has had a tougher task so far — and still risen to the occasion.

Effective and Efficient

Neither team likes to waste its offensive opportunities, as shown in KenPom.com’s efficiency metrics. Gonzaga ranks fourth in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in effective field goal percentage, while Oregon ranks 11th and 12th in those categories, respectively.

Gonzaga’s scoring is more balanced, though, with six players averaging 10 or more points. Only three players average double-figures for Oregon, who are clearly led by senior guard Payton Pritchard.

Decision Time

This game could go right down to the wire, but I’ll lean on Gonzaga to cover. The Bulldogs are likely eager to prove their worth against a credible opponent and Oregon is coming off what was likely a mentally and emotionally draining game against Seton Hall.

Plus, Gonzaga’s scoring balance means they’ll have more potential sources for points than Oregon if one or two contributors goes cold.

Pick: Gonzaga, -3.5 (-117)

Author Image