Upcoming Match-ups

Houston vs Baylor Odds, Lines, and Pick

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Updated Apr 1, 2021 · 1:54 PM PDT

Baylor Bears
Baylor guard Jared Butler (12) plays against Wisconsin in the second half of a second-round game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Sunday, March 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • Baylor is a five-point favorite over Houston in their Final Four matchup on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
  • The winner advances to play top-overall seed Gonzaga or UCLA in the championship game Monday night
  • The odds for Houston-Baylor along with analysis and a prediction can be found below

It will be an all-Texas affair between a pair of one-time conference rivals when Baylor meets Houston at 5:00 pm ET, Saturday, in an NCAA Tournament national semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Baylor (26-2) is coming off an 81-72 victory over Arkansas in the South Region final as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bears have won eight of their last nine games, are on a three-game winning streak against the spread, and are favored to reach the national championship game against Gonzaga or UCLA.

Houston (28-3) stretched its winning streak to 11 games when it beat Oregon State, 67-61, in the Midwest Regional final. The Cougars failed to cover the eight-point spread.

Houston vs Baylor Odds

Team Moneyline at DraftKings Spread Total
Houston +185 +5 (-107) Over 134 (-113)
Baylor -225 -5 (-113) Under 134 (-107)

Odds as of April 1. 

Teague Tops Baylor

Senior MaCio Teague scored 22 points to lead Baylor over Arkansas. The Bears also got 14 points from junior guard Jared Butler, 12 from junior guard Davion Mitchell, and 10 off the bench from sophomore guard Adam Flagler.

That helped the Bears reach the Final Four for the first time since 1950.

Mitchell had six assists and Butler added five while Flagler had four steals. Flagler helped Baylor force 15 turnovers that it turned into 21 points.

Teague’s offensive outburst came after he had scored in single digits in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Teague’s 15.9 scoring average is second on the team to Butler’s 16.5. Teague is also shooting 85.9% on free-throw attempts and has committed just 31 turnovers in 892 minutes played.

Butler is also averaging 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals. Mitchell has averages of 14.0 points and 5.3 assists and is making 52.3% of his field-goal attempts and 45.0% from long range.

Flagler has scored in double figures in consecutive games for the first time since reaching 10 or more points in each of the first five games of the season.

Double the Fun

Houston is the first team in tournament history to reach the Final Four by beating four double-digit seeds — #15 Cleveland State, #10 Rutgers, #11 Syracuse and #12 Oregon State.

However, the Cougars are in the Final Four for the first time since 1984 and the “Phi Slama Jama” era and they aren’t apologizing. They rode a 20-point performance from sophomore guard Marcus Sasser and 18 points from junior guard Quentin Grimes to beat Oregon State.

Grimes is Houston’s leading scorer with 18.0 points a game. He is also averaging 5.8 rebounds and KenPom.com ranks him as the nation’s ninth-best player.

Grimes hit a big three-point field goal with 3:21 left in the regional final that broke a 55-55 tie and put Houston ahead for good. That came after the Cougars squandered the 34-17 lead they had at halftime.

Sasser made five threes in the win as he reached 20 points for the fourth time this season but first since Jan. 20. His 13.5 scoring average is second on the team.

Senior guard DeJon Jarreau nearly had his second double-double of the season, finishing with 10 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. He has season averages of 10.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists.

Houston had a 38-27 rebounding advantage as senior forward Justin Gorham had 10 boards. That helped offset the Cougars shooting just 32.3% (20 of 62).

History Lesson

Baylor and Houston were members of the old Southwest Conference before it splintered in 1996. The schools last played each other during the 2002-03 season.

Houston is seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency at 118.6 points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom, and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency with an 88.4 mark. Baylor is third on offense (123.0) and 28th on defense (92.2).

Thus, look for Houston’s defense to help keep this game a tight one

Pick: Houston +5 (-106)


 

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