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Indiana’s Final-Four Odds Improve to +625 with Khristian Lander; Are Hoosiers a Legitimate Contender?

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 12:58 PM PDT

Race Thompson wearing protective face shield and shooting ball
Indiana forward Race Thompson (25) shoots against Purdue during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in West Lafayette, Ind., Saturday, March 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • Five-star point guard Khristian Lander reclassified to 2020, meaning he’ll be a Hoosier this season
  • The news prompted online sportsbooks to shorten Indiana’s Final Four odds from +700 to +625, on average
  • Read below to find out if the Hoosiers are a legitimate threat to reach their first Final Four since 2002

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of college basketball’s most storied programs, but it feels like an eternity since they’ve tasted real success. Hoosiers’ nation is hoping that will change in 2020 and, on Monday, they got some news that will certainly help.

Five-star recruit Khristian Lander announced he’ll reclassify to 2020 and join Indiana for the upcoming season. The addition of Lander has propelled the Hoosiers’ recruiting class to number two in the Big Ten, and shortened their 2021 Final Four odds from +700 to +625.

2021 Big Ten Final Four Odds

Team Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes +288
Wisconsin Badgers +313
Ohio State Buckeyes +575
Michigan State Spartans +600
Indiana Hoosiers +625
Michigan Wolverines +738
Maryland Terrapins +775
Purdue Boilermakers +1000
Illinois Fighting Illini +1125
Minnesota Golden Gophers +1225
Penn State Nittany Lions +1950
Nebraska Cornhuskers +4450
Northwestern Wildcats +4450
Rutgers Scarlet Knights OFF

Odds taken May 18th.

Indiana hasn’t made an NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016 and haven’t reached the Final Four since 2002.

Hoosiers Heading in Right Direction

Despite the lack of recent March Madness success, Archie Miller’s squad appears to be heading in the right direction. They won 20 games for the first time in four seasons in 2019-20, and were on their way to a March Madness berth before play was shut down.

Eight of their top nine scorers from last season are expected back and now they’ll add Lander, who was this year’s 17th ranked recruit.

The 6-foot-2 guard is known as both a scorer and facilitator, and dominated the high school ranks in his final year. As a junior, he average 21 points, 6 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 2019-20, and is blessed with excellent athleticism and speed.

The extra offense will definitely help an Indiana team that finished in the bottom half of the conference in scoring and failed to exceed 72 points in all but five Big Ten contests.

Lander’s announcement not only shortened the Hoosiers’ Final Four odds but also moved them inside the top-25 in several experts preseason rankings. The problem for Indiana fans is, they’re still ranked behind five other Big Ten teams.

The Big Ten is Loaded

The Big Ten is shaping up to be the most dominant conference in college basketball this season. In addition to the Hoosiers, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Rutgers are all top-25 ranked teams, and Michigan isn’t far behind.

Four of those programs (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State) have shorter Final Four odds than Indiana and for good reason. All four are loaded with experience and were ranked 23rd or better in KenPom’s efficiency metrics last season.

Indiana checked in at number 34 in those ratings, but struggled offensively. They shot below 50% from the field, and just 32.6% from three. Lander will certainly help improve those numbers but how much of an impact can he make as a 17-year-old?

This isn’t a once in a generation type player, and although he’s likely to help Indiana achieve more success than they’ve experienced lately, expecting his arrival to propel them to a legitimate Final Four contender seems overly optimistic.

Fade Indiana Futures

With so many competitive Big Ten teams, Indiana is likely to experience a similar fate as last season. 20+ wins and a tournament berth seems likely, but they’ll be hard pressed to compete for a conference title.

They finished 9-11 in Big Ten play a season ago and an upgrade of 2-3 conference wins in 2020-21 should be a considered a big success. That would likely earn them middle of the pack March Madness seed, and from there they’d face a daunting uphill battle to reach the National Semifinals.

 

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