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Indiana State vs Purdue Picks and Odds (Nov. 12)

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Basketball

Updated Nov 12, 2021 · 2:45 AM PST

Treveon Williams
Purdue forward Trevion Williams (50) celebrates in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Ohio State at the Big Ten Conference tournament in Indianapolis, Friday, March 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • No. 7 Purdue takes on Indiana State in the second game of Year 17 of the Matt Painter Era Friday, November 12th, at 8:30 pm ET in West Lafayette.
  • The Boilermakers have played in the NCAA Tournament all but four seasons under Painter in which the Big Dance was held, but have not reached the Final Four since 1980
  • See below for the current moneyline, point spread, and game total, plus predictions

The Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, ranking 327th in experience per KenPom. Despite their relative inexperience, head coach Matt Painter’s club finished with a 13-6 record in the Big Ten last season — which is truly impressive considering how formidable the conference was.

Alas, the Boilers bowed out of the Big Dance in the first round — but have high hopes for this season, buoyed by All-American candidate Trevion Williams. Now, after a 96-67 victory against Bellarmine in the season opener Tuesday, Purdue takes on the in-state Indiana State Sycamores (1-0) as big favorites Friday. Tip time is 8:30 pm ET.

Indiana State vs Purdue Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Indiana State +1200 +23.5 (-110) O 143 (-105)
Purdue -2500 -23.5 (-110) U 143 (-115)

Odds as of November 11th, 2021, at DraftKings. 

In Trevion We Trust

The Boilermakers offense runs through Williams, the national leader in percentage of teams’ shots taken and the second-highest used player in the land in 2020-21. Purdue led the country in percentage of plays finished via post-up, allowing the 6-foot-10 Chicago native to work against one-on-one coverage on the block or dish to open shooters when opponents sent double or triple-teams.

Williams led the team in scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounds (9.1 rpg), as well as in assist rate last season. That’s a testament to his ability and willingness to facilitate out of the post. He gave opposing teams matchup nightmares, as he proved to be nearly un-guardable one-on-one, while constantly being surrounded by capable shooters. The one area Williams needs to improve in is free throw shooting, after going just 50% from the charity stripe last season. But look for Williams to continue a strong senior campaign Friday.

Super Sophomores

While Williams will contend for conference player of the year honors, the real reason to be excited about Purdue is the development of its sophomore class.  Guards Brandon Newman and Jaden Ivey and 7-foot-4 behemoth Zach Edey each earned the Big Ten Freshman of the Week award twice last season, while Mason Gillis won once.

Ivey, a Big Ten All-Freshman Team member in 2020-21, should be the most impactful of the bunch this season. He averaged nearly 15 points per game over his final 12 outings last year and developed as a worthy second offensive option to Williams. He’s versatile with a quick first step and — combined with his length — Ivey is a truly hard guard.

Newman started 23 games last season and, unlike Williams, was money from the foul line, shooting 94%. He also shot 38% from behind the arc. If Newman can be close to those numbers Friday and beyond, watch out.

Gillis will likely begin the season as the team’s starting 4. The tough 6-foot-6 forward provides rebounding and outside shooting. Meantime, Edey towers over opponents in the paint and is nearly indefensible when he catches the ball on the block. His touch for his size is unreal and he had some huge games last season in limited minutes.

Edey would start for nearly every other team in the country – on Purdue he ensures the Boilers are never without a dominant post presence on the floor.

New Era in Terre Haute

For the first time in 12 years, the Indiana State Sycamores have a new head coach as Josh Schertz takes over the Missouri Valley Conference program. Schertz spent the last 13 years at Division II Lincoln Memorial University, where he owned a career record of 337-69 (.831) en route to four national coach of the year honors.

It will be a baptism by fire in Terre Haute for Schertz. He lost last year’s leading scorer Tyreke Key to season-ending shoulder surgery prior to the season even starting. The senior guard averaged 17 points per game, while also chipping in five rebounds and two assists an outing).

Four players scored in double-figures for the Sycamores in an 81-77 victory over Wisconsin-Green Bay in the lid-lifter, led by Cooper Neese’s 18. Kailex Stephens put up a double-double against the Phoenix, registering 16 points and 13 boards.

The bottom line is Purdue should dominate their neighbors to the south Friday and much of the college basketball world this season. Barring a slew of sophomore slumps, Purdue will be in the running for a Big Ten title this season and contend for that elusive national championship.

Pick: Purdue -23.5 (-110)

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