James Wiseman Ruled Ineligible (Again); How Should Bettors Approach Memphis Now?

• James Wiseman will not be able to play for the time being, although he is able to practice
• Wiseman was named both the AAC Player of the Week and the Lute Olson National Player of the Week
• Memphis only has one opponent rated better than No. 22 in their next 14 games, according to KenPom.com

Memphis Tigers star James Wiseman has withdrawn his lawsuit against the NCAA, which means he’s now ineligible. He’ll still be able to practice with the team and Memphis has appealed the NCAA’s decision, but until further notice, he won’t be on the court.

How does that impact the Tigers’ 2020 March Madness title odds and how should you bet them in the immediate future? Let’s take a closer look.

2020 NCAA Tournament Odds

Odds as of Nov. 14th, 2019.

Wiseman Banned, Effective Immediately

Both Memphis and Wiseman had an interesting strategy this past week when they decided to file their lawsuit against the NCAA. Typically, whenever a player is flagged and is at risk of violating some NCAA rules, teams hold those players off the court until the NCAA has handed out its punishment. In this case, Memphis and Wiseman bucked the NCAA.

On Thursday, they changed course and decided to withdraw their lawsuit against the NCAA, which temporary allowed Wiseman to play. It appears they did that because that became an impediment to reaching a resolution with the NCAA. Wiseman can re-file his lawsuit a later date, if he so chooses.

Jay Bilas had reported that Memphis’ strategy of challenging the NCAA could lead to a postseason ban for the school and even greater punishment. Everyone loses in that case. Now it seems like cooler heads might prevail and, while Wiseman might get punished, it likely won’t be as drastic.

Logic Should Prevail

Nobody wins if Wiseman is ruled permanently ineligible. The NCAA would not only look foolish, but they’d also lose money as Wiseman is a big draw. Someone else would benefit as a result – if it’s a basketball league in Australia or the G League – and their brand would be weakened.

As for the school, they obviously want Wiseman as he’s a key piece to their championship credibility. Wiseman clearly wants to be there and playing in the NCAA – rather than making a last-minute change – is what is best for his draft stock, too.

Outside the Lines on the James Wiseman court case dismissal and subsequent ineligibility declaration by Memphis. pic.twitter.com/OnVEXAOVza

— Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) November 14, 2019

I’m expecting some form of punishment here, but nothing major. He’s not going to be wiped out for the season. If the offense had been more serious, he might be, but as I wrote a few days ago, “The issue stems from when Hardaway was a high school basketball coach in 2017 and helped Wiseman’s family move to Memphis. He gave the family $11,500 to cover the expenses. Wiseman didn’t know about it.'”

If the family repays the money and this was an honest mistake, I’d expect Wiseman to get 10 games or fewer.

Memphis’ Upcoming Schedule Is A Breeze

Taking a look at Memphis’ upcoming schedule, there’s really not a whole lot for them to sweat. They do face Ole Miss and NC State in a few games but neither of those games are true road games (Ole Miss is at home and NC State is at a neutral site).

They will have to go to Tennessee on December 14th and will host Cincinnati on January 16th, but at this point, who knows if Wiseman will be back by then. The Tennessee matchup is seven games away while Cincinnati is 14 away. Tennessee is their highest-rated opponent, according to KenPom, as they’re at No. 22. Nobody else until Cincy is better than 44th.

The NCAA told Memphis and James Wiseman’s attorneys that it could not reach a resolution with Memphis with a lawsuit pending. That is the reason for Wiseman taking a nonsuit in the action. The case can be re-filed if a resolution is not reached. https://t.co/ncNfNK92KB

— Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) November 14, 2019

If he’s out beyond the Cincy game, Memphis will probably start piling up some losses because that’s when they’ll get into conference play. If that’s the case, that will put a big dent in their hopes for contending this season as it will lead to a lower seed in March Madness.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, I wouldn’t mind holding a Memphis ticket simply because you’re getting them at a discount. Sure, he’ll be out for a bit but it looks like the NCAA and Memphis are trying to come to a reasonable resolution. If he was a nobody, he’d have been banned and nobody would have looked twice.

Since he’s a star, everyone wants him back on the court. I’m expecting him to miss about 10 games, which means Memphis should mostly be fine until he’s back. You’re taking on a bit of risk but they’ve dropped in terms of their odds to win it all, so you are being rewarded for taking that risk.