Upcoming Match-ups

Kentucky Opens as 6.5-Point Favorite Over Auburn in SEC Title Clinching Game

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2021 · 10:34 AM PDT

Kentucky head coach John Calipari coaching his team from the sidelines
Kentucky head coach John Calipari directs his team during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Richmond in Lexington, Ky., Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020. (AP Photo/James Crisp)
  • Kentucky can clinch its 37th SEC regular-season title by beating Auburn on Saturday afternoon at Rupp Arena in Lexington
  • The Wildcats have won seven games in a row since losing to Auburn on Feb. 1st, and have clawed their way back into the top ten of the AP rankings
  • Can Auburn collect their first victory at Rupp Arena since 1988? See the odds and pick for the game below 

Kentucky has plenty of championship banners hanging from the rafters of Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are in position to add to that collection on Saturday afternoon.

No. 8 Kentucky (23-5 overall, 15-1 home) can clinch the SEC regular-season title when its hosts No. 15 Auburn (24-4, 4-4 road) at 3:45 p.m. ET in Lexington. It would be the Wildcats 37th regular season SEC crown.

Beyond that, Kentucky will almost surely see their National Championship odds improve should they take down Bruce Pearl’s crew.

#15 Auburn vs #8 Kentucky Odds

Team Spread Over/Under
Auburn +4.5 (-110) Ov 140 (-110)
Kentucky -4.5 (-110) Un 140 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 28th

Kentucky (13-2) holds a two-game lead over Auburn (11-4) in the conference standings with three games to play and would clinch first place with a win. Florida and LSU are both 10-5 but their title hopes are hanging by a thread.

Since losing 75-66 at Auburn on Feb. 1, Kentucky has run off seven wins in a row. Sophomore guard Immanuel Quickley has led the way, averaging 21.6 points a game during the streak.

The Tigers have gone 5-2 since that matchup and have won their last two games after back-to-back losses. Auburn has a five-game winning streak against ranked opponents dating to last season.

Kentucky Has Many Scorers

Quickley scored a career-high 30 points on Tuesday in a 69-60 victory at Texas A&M. He is one of five Kentucky players to have at least 25 points in a game this season, a group that includes sophomore guard Ashton Hagans, freshman guard Tyrese Maxey, sophomore forward EJ Montgomery and junior forward Nick Richards.

Not surprisingly, Kentucky has four players with scoring averages in double figures – Quickley (16.2), Maxey (13.9), Richards (13.9) and Richards (11.8).

Okoro Back for Auburn

Freshman forward Isaac Okoro returned to the lineup Tuesday as Auburn defeated Ole Miss 67-58 after missing three games with a hamstring injury.

Okoro played 27 minutes against the Rebels, about 10 minutes more than planned, and scored 10 points. He is second on the team in scoring (13.0 PPG) and rebounds (4.6 RPG).

Senior guard Samir Doughty is Auburn’s leading scorer at 16.1 points per game but has been in a recent shooting slump. He is 5 for 21 on 3-pointers – 23.8 percent – in the last five games.

Auburn’s greatest offensive strength might be drawing fouls. The Tigers are averaging 27.1 free throw attempts a game, the most in the nation, and that number has risen to 29.6 over the last five games.

Here is how the teams match up in some KenPom categories:

Auburn
VS
Kentucky
+15.44 (36th) Adjusted efficiency margin +18.10 (27th)
110.1 (39th) Adjusted offensive efficiency 111.4 (29th)
94.7 (60th) Adjusted defensive efficiency 93.3 (41st)
68.8 (154th) Adjusted tempo 67.7 (214th)

[/matchup}

Tigers Hold Recent Series Edge

In the meeting between the teams four weeks ago, Auburn shot 44 free throws in the nine point home victory as a 2.5-point favorite. The Tigers made 33, including a 14-of-15 effort by Doughty on his way to a team-high 23 points.

Quickley also scored 23 to lead Kentucky and Maxey added 22.

YouTube video

Auburn has won its last two games against Kentucky, including an overtime victory last season in the Midwest Regional final of the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers have also won four of their last seven matchups.

However, Auburn has lost 17 straight games in Lexington since 1988. Furthermore, Kentucky has covered six of seven games against the spread since losing at Auburn while the Tigers are 3-4 ATS in that span.

The Wildcats are hot and, in front of a home crowd, will avenge their most recent loss.

The pick: Kentucky -6.5 (-110)

Author Image