Kentucky vs Arkansas Odds, Lines and Spread (Feb. 26)
- Arkansas is a 2.5-point favorite over Kentucky on Saturday in college hoops
- Kentucky is 8-1 in its last nine games, 4-5 ATS
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
No. 18 Arkansas (22-6, 11-4) is a 2.5-point home favorite over Kentucky in an SEC game at 2 pm ET Saturday on CBS. The Razorbacks are 12-1 straight up and ATS since Jan. 8, their only loss by one point at Alabama on Feb. 12.
No. 5 Kentucky (23-3, 12-3) has won eight of its last nine games (4-5 ATS) behind top Wooden Award candidate Oscar Tshiebwe. The Wildcats are FanDuels’ second choice (+145) to win the NCAA Tournament behind Gonzaga (-115).
Kentucky vs Arkansas Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats | +120 | +2.5 (-110) | Over 146.5 (-110) |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | -145 | -2.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110) |
Odds from BetMGM on Feb. 25
Arkansas is a 2.5-point home favorite over Kentucky with the total set at 146.5, on the high side for each. Arkansas is -145 on the moneyline, meaning the Razorbacks have a 59.2% implied win probability. Kentucky is +120 on the moneyline, meaning the Wildcats have a 45,5% implied win probability.
Kentucky Plays Through Injuries
Kentucky has played through the loss of starting guards TyTy Washington, a projected first-round pick in the 2022 NBA draft, and true point guard Sahvir Wheeler in its last two games, overcoming double-digit deficits in each in victories over Alabama and LSU.
Senior Davion Mintz has stepped into the point guard spot and reserve forward Jacob Toppin has started the last two in a wing-oriented, athletic lineup that includes spot-up shooter Kellen Grady (12.4 points, 82 threes) and Keion Brooks (11.1 points, 4.5 rebounds). The Wildcats won with three assists against LSU.
Washington (lower leg) and Wheeler (upper extremity) practiced with the Wildcats before the LSU but did not dress, and the pair remain day to day.
Reserve freshman 6’6 Bryce Harper provided a spark against LSU, which build a double-digit lead in the first half and held the Wildcats to 23 points in the first half, a season low. Hopkins, who was averaging 2.4 points in 6.9 minutes per game, had a season-high 13 points and was a key component in. an 11-0 run to put the Wildcats ahead.
Comeback Cats 😼
First time with back-to-back double-digit deficits overcome since 1/8/19 vs. Texas A&M (10pts) and 1/12/19 vs. Vanderbilt (12 pts). pic.twitter.com/BPbSoZwnOe
— Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) February 24, 2022
Arkansas Has Recovered Nicely
After going 1-5 in a month-long stretch that included home losses to Hofstra and Vanderbilt, the Porker Pigs have turned in one of the best stretches in Division I.
Coach Eric Musselman’s group has won 12 of its last 13 to get into the chase for the SEC regular-season title. The Razorbacks are the only team to have beaten Auburn and Tennessee this season, both in Bud Walton Arena, and they beat contenders Tennessee and Florida last week.
Arkansas head Coach Eric Musselman living his best life tonight shirtless in a court storm pic.twitter.com/aQQ7ufbsdM
— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) February 9, 2022
Senior guard JD Notae (18.7 points, 4.4. rebounds, 3.4 assists) leads four double-digit scorers, and 6’10 sophomore Jaylin Williams (10.4 points, 9.6 rebounds) has come on strong. Notae played only 24 minutes in the 68-67 loss to Alabama after picking up two early fouls.
Williams is averaging 14.1 points and 10.9 rebounds in the last 14 games and has five consecutive double-doubles. South Dakota senior transfer guard 6’6 Stanley Umude is averaging 11.1 points and 4.6 rebounds.
Kentucky: A Pair of No. 1s?
Kentucky power forward and rebounding machine 6’9 Oscar Tshiebwe is the favorite to win the Wooden Award as the best player in Division I. He is listed as +130 by DraftKings, far ahead of second choice Kofi Cockburn (+550).
🤖🤯 @Oscartshiebwe34 really made breaking @KentuckyMBB's rebounding record look easy pic.twitter.com/OYF5wgvRq0
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 24, 2022
Tshiebwe, who leads Kentucky in scoring at 16.4 points per game and leads Division I in rebounding at 15.3, has 10 consecutive double-doubles. He had 38 points and 30 rebounds, 12 offensive rebounds, against Alabama and LSU. He also leads Division I in offensive rebounds (5.2).
At the same time, Kentucky is a top candidate to join No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Arizona as one of four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga and Arizona are close to locks for two of the top seeds, but Kentucky is in the mix with Auburn, Kansas, Purdue for the other two.
🚨#Bracketology for @HeatCheckCBB🚨
This field is updated through Thursday's results. I will also be hopping on the @TheFieldOf68's bracketology show tonight (2/25) at 6pm ET to talk all things brackets and resumes. Be sure to tune in!
FULL BRACKET: https://t.co/YqjVKzqtgM pic.twitter.com/fdrsSO9Ha5
— Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports) February 25, 2022
The Wildcats have not been a No. 1 NCAA seed since 2015. Games against Arkansas and Florida in the regular-season finale March 5 provide an opportunity for selection committee-impressing Quad 1 wins, as will the SEC tournament.
Kentucky vs Arkansas Head-to-Head Results
The Wildcats are 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in their last nine against Arkansas, including the championship game of the 2017 SEC tournament. Kentucky is 3-0 straight up and ATS in its last three in Fayetteville.
Three of the last four games in the series have gone over the total, as have three of the last four in Arkansas.
Betting Trends
Arkansas is 18-10 ATS this season, 11-4 in the SEC. The Hogs are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in their last seven at home. Three of their last four and four of the last six have gone under the total.
Kentucky is 5-2 straight up in its last seven road games and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17.
Kentucky vs Arkansas Prediction
The availability of Washington and Wheeler is the big item here. They are the WIldcats’ best ball-handlers, and without them Kentucky is susceptible to the kind of pressure that Arkansas can bring. The Razorbacks average 15.4 takeaways per game, 12th in the Power Six. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in SEC road games.
The pick: Arkansas -2.5 (-110)
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
