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Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds, Lines and Predictions (Jan. 14)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Jan 13, 2023 · 7:16 PM PST

Tennessee players celebrating
Tennessee guards Josiah-Jordan James (30) and Zakai Zeigler (5) celebrate after James scores on a dunk with an assist from Zeigler during the NCAA college basketball game against Mississippi State in Knoxville, Tenn. on Tuesday, January 3, 2023. Kns Ut Msu Basketball
  • No. 5 Tennessee meets arch-rival Kentucky in an SEC game on Saturday, January 14
  • Tennessee is a 12-point home favorite against the Wildcats at Thompson-Boling Arena
  • Read below for Kentucky vs Tennessee odds, analysis and prediction

No. 5 Tennessee (13-2, 3-0 SEC) is a 12-point home favorite against long-time rival Kentucky in an SEC game at noon Saturday on ESPN. The Volunteers’ two losses are to Pac-12 teams Colorado and No. 8 Arizona.

Kentucky (10-6, 1-3 SEC) has lost two games in a row and three of five. The Wildcats, ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25, fell out of the rankings two weeks ago. They are off to worst their SEC start since the 1986-87 season.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kentucky Wildcats +12 (-110) +575 Over 132.5 (-110)
Tennessee Volunteers -12 (-110) -875 Under 132.5 (-110)

Odds from DraftKings on Jan. 13. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the Kentucky vs Tennessee game.

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Tennessee is a 12-point home favorite over Kentucky, the first of their two meetings this season. The Volunteers are 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine in the series, the latest a 69-62 victory over the Wildcats in the semifinals of the 2002 SEC Tournament. Tennessee is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven against UK at Thompson-Boling Arena and 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four as a home favorite.

Tennessee is 9-7 ATS this season, 3-4 ATS in its last seven. Kentucky is 4-12 ATS this season, and its cover percentage (25%) is seventh-worst among in Division I. The Wildcats are 0-10 ATS since a 30-point win over North Florida on Nov. 23. The total has gone over in five of Kentucky’s last six and has gone under in five of the Volunteers’ last eight.

Tennessee Wins with D

Again this season, the Volunteers are playing the kind of smart, sticky man-to-man defense that is keeping opponents from getting into a any kind of offensive rhythm. Foes are shooting only 33.5% from the field, second in Division I, and are dead last in three-point field goal percentage (20.9%). Colorado and Arizona are two of the three teams that have above 40% against them this season.

Led by backcourt disruptors senior Santiago Vescovi and sophomore Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee is averaging 10.2 steals and 17.1 takeaways per game. Senior Vescovi, a 6’3″ native of Uruguay, leads the balanced Volunteers’ offense in scoring (12.9 points). Five others are averaging between nine and 12 points per game — 6’8″ senior forward Olivier Nkamhoua (11.6 points), 6’8″ freshman forward Julian Phillips (10.3 points, a team-high 5.4 rebounds) and 5’9″ guard Ziegler (10.0 points, team-high 4.4 assists) are in double-figures. Zeigler, who comes off the bench, has 27 assists and seven steals in the last three games.

Tennessee has a plus-10 rebounding margin, second to Purdue in Division I, and again it is a group effort. Five players are averaging between 5.4 and 4.3 rebounds.

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Kentucky Falling Fast

The Wildcats have fallen on hard times. Kentucky has lost to every opponent that was ranked at the time of the game — Michigan State, Gonzaga, UCLA, Missouri, Alabama — and was within double-digits only once, an 86-77 double-overtime loss to Michigan State in neutral Indianapolis.

The Wildcats lost at Rupp Arena to South Carolina for the first time in 14 seasons the last time out, 71-68, that coming three days after a 78-52 loss at No. 4 Alabama, in which 2022 national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe was benched for ineffective defense.

As the 6’9″ Tshiebwe did a year ago, he is averaging a double-double (16.0 points, 13.1 rebounds). Three other Wildcats are averaging at least 10 points a game — Illinois State transfer guard Antonio Reeves (11.8), freshman guard Cason Wallace (11.6) and forward Jacob Toppin (10.9). Toppin and Wallace are questionable for the Tennessee game. Toppin (shoulder) did not play against South Carolina, and Wallace (back spasms) played only the first eight minutes against the Gamecocks before going out.

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Because of season-long injury issues, the Wildcats have used seven starting lineups, none more than five times. Kentucky’s signature victory is a 73-69 decision over Michigan in a game played in London, England.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction

Given its history, Kentucky will be back at some point. Right now, the Wildcats are at best the fifth-best team in SEC with little to recommend them going forward until (and if) they turn things around. Tennessee plays the kind of defense that can make even the best look average, and Kentucky has done that on its own much of the season. The Wildcats have not been this much of a underdog since 2008, when they went off at plus-18.5 against No. 1 North Carolina. The Tar Heels won by 19. This is not the time to buck an 0-10 ATS streak.

  • Pick: Tennessee -12 (-110)
  • Season CBK: 18-10 ATS
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