Michigan Has +700 Odds to Reach Final Four But Title Odds as Short as +1200
- Michigan’s odds to make the Final Four reflect a team that should be at least +2500 to win the National Championship
- The Wolverine’s title odds vary wildly between online sportsbooks, and can be found for as short as +1200 or as long as +3000
- Is Michigan a legit 2021 March Madness contender?
Michigan’s college basketball futures are totally out of whack. Depending on which online sportsbook you look at, the Wolverines’ championship odds are as short as +1200 or as long as +3000.
The short price tag is especially confusing when you consider their average 2021 Final Four odds are +700, which is more in line with a team that’s priced in the +2500 to +5000 range to win it all.
Michigan Final Four and National Championship Odds
| Average Final Four Odds | Best National Championship Odds | Worst National Championship Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +700 | +1200 | +3000 |
Odds taken May 9th.
Michigan’s average 2021 March Madness Title odds opened at +3300 and currently sit at +1800. Obviously there’s no value betting on them at +1200 but what about at their most favorable price?
Inconsistency Plagues Juwan Howard’s First Year
2019-2020 was an inconsistent season for first-year head coach Juwan Howard before it was ultimately cut short. The Wolverines were 19-12 overall, but just 10-10 in Big Ten play. At one point they dropped six of seven conference games, before rallying to win seven of their next eight.
Despite the up-and-down campaign, they were well on their way to their fifth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, although few were expecting a deep run.
This season’s roster will look extremely different. Yes, they’ll feature the 12th-best recruiting class in the nation, but there are plenty of holes to fill.
Key Losses Across the Board
We know for sure that two of Michigan’s top-three scorers from last season won’t be playing in Ann Arbor this year, and there’s potential for all three to be gone.
Guard Zavier Simpson and center Jon Teske are no longer eligible, and leading scorer Isaiah Livers has declared for the NBA Draft. Livers did not hire an agent, so he still has the option to forego the draft and return to school, but those aren’t the only names that have left.
David DeJulius, the projected starting point guard at Michigan next year, has announced he will be transferring to Cincinnati
• Chose UC over Iowa State, Marquette & Missouri
• 7 pts, 2 ast, 2 reb, 36% from three
• 4 ⭐️ recruit out of high school
• 2 years of eligibility pic.twitter.com/Ahu82qZM5h— The Bearcat Outsider (@BearcatOutsider) April 16, 2020
The Wolverines lost three players to the transfer portal this spring, including David DeJulius who was expected to be the team’s starting point guard.
As mentioned, they’re bringing in a quality recruiting class, but it could have been exceptional. Michigan lost a pair of 5-star recruits in the span of a few days when Josh Christopher snubbed the maize and blue for Arizona State and Isaiah Todd de-committed in favor of the NBA’s G-League.
On the positive side, Franz Wagner is back for his sophomore year and they did land Columbia point guard Mike Smith as a transfer. Smith averaged 23 points per game in the Ivy League and should fill the hole left by DeJulius’ departure.
Hard to Trust Michigan
With plenty of new faces, the Wolverines aren’t a team I’m looking to back even at a favorable price. ESPN’s way too early Bracketology pegs them as a 6-seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, while other leading experts have them on the outside of the top-25 overall rankings.
Fellow conference contenders Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are all priced similarly to Michigan (and in some places even more favourably), and I’d much rather roll with one of those programs.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
