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Michigan State Now Heavy -150 Favorite to Win Big 10, While Michigan Slips to +600

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 2:12 PM PDT

Cassius Winston
Cassius Winston led Michigan State to the Final Four last year - what does the consensus preseason All-American first-team pick have in store this year? Photo from @SportsCenter (Twitter)
  • Michigan State ranked first in AP Poll, consensus pick for Big 10 title
  • Spartans point guard Cassius Winston returns from last year’s Final Four team
  • We break down the Big 10 picture – is Michigan State the best bet?

If you are to believe the college basketball conference title odds for the Big 10, it’s Michigan State … and then everybody else.

The recent release of the Associated Press Poll has the Spartans ranked #1, and oddsmakers have made them an even heavier favorite in the conference, shortening their odds to +150 from the +200 they were in September.

Big 10 Conference Title Odds

Team Odds
Michigan State +150
Michigan +600
Maryland +600
Ohio State +800
Purdue +1200
Wisconsin +1400
Iowa +2000
Indiana +2000

*Odds from 10/24/19

On the other end of the spectrum, the unranked Michigan Wolverines have faded to +600, while no. 23 Purdue (co-Conference title champions with the Spartans a year ago) have faded to +1200.

With a whole season to play out, let’s find out if the Spartans are the best bet, or if there’s better value down the board.

Spartans Project to be a Powerhouse

This year’s team brings back star power and veteran leadership in the form of senior point guard Cassius Winston, the lone consensus preseason AP All-American first-team selection.

He’s coming off a sparkling junior campaign, where he averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists while logging better than 33 minutes a night. Winston shot better than 50% from the field, nearly 40% from beyond the arc and a sturdy 84% from the stripe.

About the only thing eluding him at this point is a national championship and National Player of the Year accolades. If it all bounces right, he may be in line for both come season’s end.

Winston will be aided by Junior big man Xavier Tillman, and guard Josh Langford, whenever he does return from a foot injury (projected to be in January). Until then, head coach Tom Izzo may get a chance to trot out his top recruit, scoring guard Rocket Watts, who should help take some of the burden off their celebrated point man.

Maryland, Ohio State Hoping for Development and Continuity

Last year was a testing ground for what was the fifth youngest team in the nation – and Maryland made the tourney. While they did lose Bruno Fernando, they also return many of the players that helped win 13 games in the conference.

They’ll feature 6’10 big man Jalen Smith and point guard Anthony Cowan heavily, and they’ll hope Aaron Wiggins takes the leap to realize his potential on the wing. Freshmen Makhi Mitchell and Donta Scott should supplement plenty of support.

Despite making the tournament, Ohio State was just 8-12 in conference play. The injection of the top-ranked recruiting class in the Big 10 should help the big men brother tandem of Kaleb and Andre Wesson. Guard DJ Carton is a heavy favorite for conference freshman of the year, and he’s joined by fellow top-50 recruits EJ Lidell and Alonzo Gaffney.

Throw in a returning group of guards Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington Jr. and Musa Jallow and forwards Kyle Young and Justin Ahrens, and the Buckeyes could be business.

What about Michigan or Purdue?

Even the biggest boosters have to proceed with caution for either of these teams.

Fab 5 alumni Juwan Howard seems like a great choice to take over from what John Beilein has built in Ann Arbor, but he’s inheriting a team that has lost its best players, and they’re banking on solid role players taking the leap.

That includes last year’s sixth man Isaiah Livers and 7’1 center Zavier Simpson. If freshman wing Franz Wagner pans out, perhaps the Wolverines can make some noise, but their fading odds tell you no one is sure yet on Howard’s impact.

While Izzo is a king of turning over rosters, we’re about to see how Matt Painter does after losing a dearth of talent that helped Purdue tie of the Big 10 crown and march to within plays of the Final Four. Gone are scoring machine Carsen Edwards and sharpshooting ace Ryan Kline, and with it, the fourth-ranked offense in the nation.

Nojel Eastern will assume point duties, but he’s not a shooting threat. He’ll be trying to feed big men Trevion Williams and Aaron Wheeler, in an offense that’s going to look far more bruising than breakneck.

Who’s the Best Bet?

There’s not a surer bet on the board than Michigan State. They feature one of the top player-coach combos in college hoops, and seem built for a third straight conference title.

If you’re looking for value, that comes in the Michigan-Maryland-Ohio State range. If I had to pick, I’d lean towards the Buckeyes’ top recruiting class and solid returning core as the difference maker.

The pick: Michigan State (+150)

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