Michigan State Now a Top-5 March Madness Favorite
- Michigan State has won 13 straight games
- The Spartans have won 21 consecutive regular-season Big Ten matchups
- Tom Izzo’s team is No. 2 in the Ken Pomeroy ratings
After losing Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson to the NBA Draft, some experts were right to assume that the Michigan State Spartans might have some early season challenges. However, after Thursdays sizable win at No. 19 Iowa (71-57), the Spartans have now won 13 in a row and have become one of the favorites in the odds to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
However, while oddsmakers have moved them up to +1000, one book still has them at +2200. Is there value on the board with Tom Izzo’s team?
Michigan State’s 2019 March Madness Odds
| Date | Michigan State’s odds to win NCAA Tournament |
|---|---|
| Jan. 24 | +1000 |
Where Should the Odds Be?
Taking a look at a few other sportsbooks, there are a number of prices out there on the Spartans; +1000 is the low and +2200 seems to be the high, but there’s also +1400 and +1600 on the board, depending on where you bet.
Spartan Explosion! #6 Michigan State closes the game on 40-17 run, cruising past #19 Iowa 82-67. 21st consecutive Big Ten victory.
Nick Ward: 21 PTS, 10 REB
pic.twitter.com/FhxbT3b3oi— CollegeBB News (@CollegeBBNCAA) January 25, 2019
Although there is a huge difference between +1000 and +2200, it’s not uncommon for the odds to be so different considering that there are so many teams in the field. Sportsbooks will have their own opinions and also adjust their odds based on how much money they have taken on each team.
What’s the Resume Look Like?
In terms of the much-respected Ken Pomeroy ratings, Michigan State is second overall after last night’s win, right behind Virginia. It’s easy to see why as they’ve played a very difficult schedule so far, beating UCLA, Iowa (twice), Ohio State, and Maryland when they were all ranked in the top 20 or better.
Their only losses were to Louisville, which is ranked now, and Kansas, which was ranked No. 1.
After Thursday’s win at Iowa, they’ve now won 21 straight (regular season) Big Ten games. Who has a better resume than that?
The all-out #Hawkeyes played their way to an 8-point lead over Michigan State, and then got buried by a Spartan avalanche Iowa lost the energy to stop.
It’s a familiar story, and @MarkFreundTV has tonight’s. pic.twitter.com/HoqNCN3I4x
— Keith Murphy (@MurphyKeith) January 25, 2019
Who’s the Competition?
Of course, Virginia is in the mix as they are the top team in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy and No. 3 according to the Associated Press. However, Virginia has consistently fallen short in the NCAA Tournament – including last year’s stunning first-round upset to No. 16 UMBC.
Duke is a stellar team led by three stars, but they are currently without point guard Tre Jones. He should be back soon but that knocks them down a peg. And beyond that, while they are star-heavy, they don’t have the depth the Spartans have.
Zion Williamson with his first poster!!!!! ???? pic.twitter.com/y0g8x6a1kr
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) January 19, 2019
The Tennessee Volunteers are the No. 1 team in the country right now. However, the KenPom rankings only have them at fifth. They are legit with a pair of SEC Player of the Year candidates in Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield. But this school hasn’t done much in March in a long time. It’s hard to see them putting it all together this season.
Is There Value at +2200?
Absolutely. The Spartans were one of the 10 best teams in the country heading into the season and, although they had two losses in their first seven games, they’re showing you who they are capable of being ever since.
The trio of Cassius Winston, Nick Ward and Josh Langford each average 15.0 points per game or better.
While the team is led by three stars, they have tons of depth as eight players contribute at least 16.5 minutes per game.
What might be more impressive is that they’ve played really well even without Langford, their third-leading scorer and best perimeter defender, in the lineup. The Langford-less seven-game win streak speaks to how deep they are.
Tom Izzo, not easily impressed.
(via @BigTenNetwork) pic.twitter.com/gkxbw7l4eF
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 22, 2019
Winston is a big key to their March Madness hopes as it’s well-known that you need to have quality point guard leading the way. It doesn’t get much better than Winston (other than maybe Ja Morant) as he’s averaging 18.3 points per game along with 7.3 assists.
When you add it all up, Sparty is worth a bet at +2200. That’s really good value.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
