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Michigan vs Penn State Odds, Spread & Picks (Jan. 29)

George Nassios

by George Nassios in College Basketball

Updated Apr 12, 2023 · 1:02 PM PDT

Michigan guard Jett Howard lays on the floor injured
Michigan guard Jett Howard grabs his left leg while a team trainer attends to him during the first half of U-M's 60-56 win on Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Crisler Center. Mich Minn 012223 Kd 827
  • The Michigan Wolverines go up against the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sunday, January 29th
  • Michigan hasn’t won a game away from home since December 8th, a span of four games
  • See below for the Michigan vs Penn State odds, plus our best bet and prediction

A couple of middling Big Ten programs who are going through similar ups-and-downs in January take on one another on Sunday, January 29th when the Michigan Wolverines (11-9, 9-10-1 ATS) pay a visit to the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-7, 11-8-1 ATS). Tipoff is set for noon ET from the Bryce Jordan Center.

Both sides have alternated wins and losses over their last five games, but that routine will end for one squad on Sunday afternoon. Owners of a 10-1 home record, Penn State have opened as 3.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds.

Michigan have not had much success on the road so far this season, with just one win to show as the visiting team. For more Michigan vs Penn State odds, see the table below as we preview this game and offer up our best bet.

Michigan vs Penn State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan Wolverines +3.5 (-110) +138 O 139.5 (-115)
Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 (-110) -166 U 139.5 (-105)

Odds as of January 28th from  FanDuel. Unlock the FanDuel promo code to  bet on this game.

Sportsbooks have handicapped this game just right when you take into account all the factors. As -166 chalk, the Nittany Lions have an implied win probability of 62.41%, while the Wolverines have a probability of 42.02% to win this game.

 

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Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends

As a serious preseason contender in the Wooden Award odds, Hunter Dickinson was expected to lead the Wolverines to new heights this season. Instead, they find themselves in a similar spot to last year’s campaign, just hanging around the middle of the Big Ten standings.

Another big man in the conference, Purdue center, Zach Edey, has stolen the thunder from Dickinson, not just in the conference, but in the country. The Canadian is currently a strong favorite to win college basketball’s player of the year award and got the better of Dickinson in Purdue’s 75-70 victory on Thursday night.

For Dickinson, his game has been a reflection of his team’s campaign as a whole. He hasn’t taken his game to the next level, with eerily similar statistics compared to his sophomore season, and as such, the Wolverines haven’t climbed the standings either.

Playing as visitors does not appeal to the Blue, as they are winless on the road in January with all those games coming against conference foes. Not only did they suffer defeat in each of those contests, but they failed to cover the spread as underdogs in each of those games.

Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends

Once again the Nittany Lions are home favorites in the college basketball odds and deservedly so. They own a stellar 10-1 records as hosts this season. Just over three weeks ago, they suffered a 10-point loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor, so you can count on them hoping to return the favor in this encounter.

Recent meetings between these two schools have not been kind to Penn State. The Wolverines have won 11 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings, with the Nittany Lions winning just once on their own court during that span.

Michigan vs Penn State Recent Results

Date Home-Away Spread Over/Under
01/04/2023 MICH 74 – PSU 69 MICH Over
02/08/2022 PSU 57 – MICH 58 PSU Under
12/13/2020 MICH 62 – PSU 58 PSU Under
01/22/2020 MICH 63 – PSU 72 PSU Under
02/12/2019 PSU 75 – MICH 69 PSU Over

While the Nittany Lions are coming off a terrible offensive performance against Rutgers where they scored just 45 points on 33.3% shooting, there are some areas where they excel on the offensive end. Keep in mind, Rutgers are arguably the best defensive team in the nation, while Michigan most definitely are not.

According to KenPom, Penn State are the 20th ranked team in the country in both three point shooting and effective field goal percentage. In addition, they treat the basketball like a newborn baby, with the least amount of turnovers of any Division I team.

Michigan vs Penn State Pick and Prediction

For the moment, these teams need to do everything in their power to pad their resumes in the hopes of making it to the big dance, never mind having designs on being candidates in the odds to win the NCAA tournament.

Fantastic freshman Jett Howard sat out the Wolverines last game with an ankle injury and is considered day-to-day at the moment. Even if he is available, he’ll be playing at less than 100% and his explosiveness to the hoop will definitely be affected.

Following a straight up loss this year, the Nittany Lions are 9-2 against the spread so our prediction is that they take advantage of a banged up Michigan side that can’t seem to win on the road and take this contest going away.

Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 (-110)

 

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