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Mid-Majors Worth Betting on to Reach the Final Four

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Basketball

Updated Nov 23, 2020 · 1:03 PM PST

Can Gonzaga finish what they started last year and make it to the Final Four?(Photo by Robert Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
  • Gonzaga (+120), Houston (+600), and San Diego State (+1000) have the best odds to reach the Final Four from outside the power conferences
  • The Bulldogs are tied with Villanova for the best Final Four odds in the whole sport
  • Read below for a deeper look at the mid-majors that have a chance to disrupt the big dance in 2021

There is so much talk about in college basketball, but nothing is better than a Cinderella story. Every year, there is plenty of value to be found in a team from outside the power conferences that makes a deep March run. It adds even more intrigue that teams like Gonzaga, who used to be a yearly dark horse, have forced their way into the conversation by getting back to the Tournament and winning games year after year.

In this unpredictable and surely chaotic upcoming season, this could be the night for one of these teams to put the glass slipper on and make it all the way to the big dance.

Mid-Majors’ Best Odds to Reach Final Four

Team Odds
Gonzaga Bulldogs +120
Houston Cougars +600
San Diego State Aztecs +1000
Northern Iowa Panthers +1000
Dayton Flyers +1200
Memphis Tigers +1500
BYU Cougars +1800
Richmond Spiders +2000
Saint Louis Billikens +2000
Davidson Wildcats +3000

Odds taken Nov. 23 at FanDuel

Unfinished Business for Gonzaga

The cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament was tough for many teams, but few teams were more disappointed than Gonzaga. With March Madness approaching, the Bulldogs had put together a record of 31-2, with two losses to quality ranked teams firmly in the rearview mirror. They beat down Saint Mary’s twice in the last three games of the season, showing exactly where they would have been heading into the tournament.

Mark Few doesn’t bring back everybody from that team, but he still fields a squad that is a threat to go deep in March. There’s a reason that they’re tied for the best odds to reach the Final Four and to win it all.

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Sophomore Drew Timme is slated to be the next leader of this team. He posted 9.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and added just under a block and a steal per game last season and, with no more Filip Petrusev, those numbers should only increase.

At guard, it will be Florida guard Andrew Nembhard that facilitates the offense. He averaged 11.2 points, 5.6 assists, and three rebounds a year ago in Gainesville, and he gives Few a reliable ball handler that has faced massive pressure at places like Kentucky and Auburn.

Of course, one of this teams’ strengths is always its experiences. Having a roster with six upperclassmen who have been here for past trips to March Madness is extremely valuable in a year where the leadership of this team shifts to some new leaders.

Cougars Could Make a Run

The biggest key in March is experience. It’s what makes Gonzaga so good, and it’s the reason that John Calipari doesn’t have the success it feels like he should at Kentucky. For Houston, the experience is there.

In the returns of Caleb Mills and Quentin Grimes, the Cougars get back 25.3 combined points per game from a year ago. There will be increased roles for players like DeJon Jarreau, Fabian White Jr., and Marcus Sasser as well. Those three combined for 26.4 points themselves last year, and they should only improve this season.

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So much of the speculation in college basketball hinges on youth. The one-and-done rule has created an environment where this kind of experience is rare. Houston has five of its top six scorers back. It also gets three of its top five rebounders back and the same number of assisters.

This doesn’t feel like a flashy Cinderella story with one star player that will get bounced in the Elite Eight. The Cougars have a balanced but potent scoring attack that is run by veteran players, and they can make a serious run.

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