Upcoming Match-ups

North Florida vs UCLA Odds, Lines, and Spread (Nov. 17)

Chris Hatfield

by Chris Hatfield in College Basketball

Updated Nov 17, 2021 · 7:50 AM PST

Johnny Juzang jumping up and rebounding basketball
UCLA guard Johnny Juzang (3) grabs a rebound during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Villanova Friday, Nov. 12, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
  • UCLA host North Florida on Wednesday night
  • It’s a tilt of an undefeated team vs a winless team 
  • Read below for a preview and bet

The #2 UCLA Bruins (4-0) take on the winless North Florida Ospreys (0-4) on Wednesday night. The game will be broadcasted on the Pac-12 Network at 10:30 pm ET.

UCLA is a 26.5-point favorite on their home court at Pauley Pavillion.

UCLA vs North Florida Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
North Florida +26.5 (-110) +3000 U 145.5(-110)
UCLA -26.5 (-110) -10000 O 145.5 (-110)

Odds via FanDuel on November 17th.

The Bruins are, once again, riding high. They defeated Long Beach State on Monday by a score of 100-79. However, the real story was a few days before when UCLA faced Villanova. In what was one of the premiere match-ups of the college basketball season, they somehow pulled out of a win. Villanova led by 10 with 9:24 to go and by four, with the ball, with less than two minutes to on the clock. It didn’t matter. UCLA stormed back and won in overtime, 86-77.

North Florida has lost four straight to open the season. They have only managed to stay within ten points once, which came their last time out against Arizona State (72-63). In fairness, they’ve opened the season with a challenging schedule. Every game has been on the road and three have been against Power Five opponents. Their 0-4 start isn’t indicative of the team they are. Many expect the Ospreys to at least be competitive in the ASUN this season.

“Birds of Trey” Back For Another Season

When the teams are a little bit more even, North Florida becomes one of the hardest teams in college basketball to handicap. Even when they aren’t, the Ospreys still aren’t easy to figure out. That’s because of their head coach Matthew Driscoll. He employs a style that few in College Basketball do.

Nevermind the wonky defense. The thing that makes them so difficult to project is how many threes they shoot. They throw up a ton. It’s exactly what their head coach wants them to do. Last season, North Florida ranked 14th in three-point rate; 48% of its possessions ended with a three-point attempt.

On the road, that number was even higher (over 50%, fourth-most in Division I). It was actually a lower number for the Ospreys than the year before. In 2019, they ranked first in three-point rate. They are the only team in over a decade to finish in the top-15 of that category in back-to-back seasons.

Why does this make them difficult to handicap? It’s simple. Three-point shooting has a higher variance more than almost anything else you can do on the court. While it’s known as “the great equalizer”, it can also be the death of teams if they have a cold night. Look to the end of their season for the best example. North Florida finished their regular season making double-digit threes in four of its last five games. Then, in the first round of the ASUN tournament, they lost while shooting 5-26 from beyond the arc.

North Florida is a true example of a team that can beat many (probably not UCLA) but lose to almost anybody. That’s the trade-off for playing that style of basketball.

Mick Cronin Wants Better Defense

We all know how talented the offense of the Bruins is. UCLA does it unconventionally with such a heavy jump-shot approach. Even with offensive talents like Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez, they are a candidate for some extreme regression because of this. That’s a topic for another time, though. The more pressing conversation is what’s happening on the other side of the ball.

UCLA has begun the year with a swing of defensive lapses. In their last game against Long Beach, the Bruins allowed 45 first-half points and only led by three at the break. The Beach had two players score over 25 points, including Joel Murray who dropped 30. Doing this nightly is something that will bite the Bruins in a talented Pac-12.

Head coach Mick Cronin knows how important cleaning up these issues are. He lamented them to the media following the win over Long Beach State. He talked about how because the Bruins lacked great individual one-on-one defenders, they had to play much better “team defense”. This is something I expected to see cleaned up in a big way against North Florida.

Prediction

Both of these teams are coming into this one with tempos in the mid 200s. That’s one piece of many that point to the under. The Bruins will have renewed focus on defense in this one. With a tilt against Gonzaga looming next week, they may even look to pull starters when this one starts to get out of hand. I’ll look to play under 145.5 and would play it down to 142.5

Pick: Under 145.5 (-110)

Author Image