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Odds Say Just One No. 1 Seed Reaches Final Four at 2019 March Madness

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in College Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 3:10 PM PDT

Coach K Duke Blue Devils
Are Coach K's 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils poised for a Final Four run? Photo by Chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff (Public Domain).
  • At least one top seed has reached the Final Four in each of the past seven years
  • National championship betting favorites are projected to be top seeds at this year’s NCAA Tournament
  • Multiple top seeds have been in the Final Four mix in three of the past four years

At least one top seed has reached the Final Four in each of the past seven years, and that trend is expected to continue at this year’s edition of March Madness. The odds of just one No. 1 seed reaching the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament has been pegged at +150 by online sportsbooks.

Odds on How Many No. 1 Seeds Reach the Final Four

How Many No. 1 Seeds Reach the Final Four at 2019 March Madness Odds
0 +650
1 +150
2 +180
3 +500
4 +800

*Odds taken on 02/20/19

Projected Top Seeds Mirror Top of National Championship Odds

The Villanova Wildcats were the sole top seed to reach the Final Four a year ago. The Wildcats spent most of the season perched atop the AP Top 25 rankings before embarking on an impressive 11-game win streak, capped by a 79-62 win over No. 7 Michigan that earned them their second national championship title in three years.

This year’s projected top seeds are once again in line with the top of the national rankings, and with the leaders in the national championship odds, with Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, and Kentucky getting the early nod as this year’s No. 1 seeds.

Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky Bring Vast Experience to this Year’s Tournament

The Blue Devils, Bulldogs, and Wildcats each have recent Final Four experience. Duke claimed its most recent national championship as a top seed in 2015, and is currently perched as a strong +190 favorite to cut the net once again this year.

Kentucky has advanced to the Final Four on four occasions since 2011, twice as a top seed, including their run to the championship in 2012. Gonzaga made its lone appearance in the Final Four two years ago, appearing in the national championship game for the first time as a No. 1 seed.

Kentucky has advanced to the Final Four on four occasions since 2011, twice as a top seed, including their run to the championship in 2012.

With such an experienced field positioned to make noise at this year’s tournament, and a lengthy history of multiple top seeds reaching the final weekend of March Madness, there is little additional value to be found in the +180 odds on two No. 1 seeds reaching this year’s Final Four.

In addition, the odds of OVER 1.5 top seeds reaching the Final Four are pegged at a very conservative +100 on the March Madness props.

Odds on the Total No. 1 Seeds to Reach the Final Four

Total No. 1 Seeds to Reach the Final Four Odds
OVER 1.5 +100
UNDER 1.5 -140

Two top seeds have competed for the title on 13 occasions since March Madness expanded to 64 teams in 1985, including each of the past two years.

A Final Four featuring zero top seeds has taken place just twice since 1985.

Conversely, a Final Four featuring zero top seeds has taken place just twice since 1985, with the most recent all-underdog tournament finale coming eight years ago, when No. 3 Connecticut overcame a late-season swoon to claim victory at an underdog-laden NCAA Tournament as a +3500 longshot.

Number of No. 1 Seeds that Have Reached the Final Four

Year Number of Top seeds to Reach Final Four
2018 2
2017 2
2016 1
2015 3
2014 1

Blue Devils, Wildcats Typically in the Mix when Multiple Top Seeds Reach Final Four

The odds lengthen dramatically on more than two top seeds competing in Final Four action. Duke and Kentucky were among the teams competing the last time three top seeds reached the final weekend of March Madness in 2015. Indeed, either the Blue Devils or Wildcats have been in the mix on each of the four previous occasions when a trio of top seeds have competed in the Final Four, adding further attraction to the +500 odds of three No. 1 squads reaching this year’s Final Four.

Not surprisingly, the odds of zero top seeds advancing are pegged at a lengthy +650, while a wager on this year’s Final Four featuring four No. 1 teams for just the second time since 1985 lag at a distant +800.

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