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Odds to Make the NCAA Tournament – Duke, Indiana Favored to Get in; Penn State a Longshot

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Updated Feb 24, 2021 · 5:54 PM PST

Matthew Hurt Duke Blue Devils
Wake Forest forward Ody Oguama (33) fouls Duke forward Matthew Hurt (21) on a rebound attempt during an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021, in Winston-Salem, N.C. (Andrew Dye/The Winston-Salem Journal via AP, Pool)
  • Odds have been posted on whether various bubble teams will make the NCAA Tournament
  • Duke, Indiana and UConn are among those favored to qualify for the field of 68
  • A look at the odds for 13 teams as well as analysis can be found below

Odds have been posted for 13 bubble teams who hope to make the NCAA Tournament next month. Among those favored to be in the 68-team field are Duke and Indiana.

While powerhouses Gonzaga and Baylor are favorites to win the tournament, plenty of teams will have to wait until Selection Sunday to see if they get in. The selection committee will unveil the field March 14 and the tourney will begin four days later in various sites in Indiana.

Odds to Make NCAA Tournament

Team Yes No
UConn -670 +440
Maryland -335 +250
Stanford -335 +250
Indiana -225 +175
Duke -200 +158
Belmont -125 +100
Georgia Tech -112 -112
Xavier -112 -112
Western Kentucky +285 -385
Utah State +300 -420
Colorado State +400 -590
Penn State +500 -770
Providence +750 -1430

Odds taken Feb. 24 from DraftKings

Right Side of The Bubble

One team that is shaping up as a strong bet to make the NCAAs is Maryland. The Terrapins are on a late-season surge that includes four straight wins that has improved their record to 14-10.

Maryland’s latest victory came Sunday when it beat Rutgers 68-59 on the road as a 4.5-point underdog. Aaron Wiggins had 13 points and 10 rebounds and was on one of five Terrapins who scored in double figures.

Maryland closes out the regular season with three winnable games – home against Michigan State and Penn State sandwiched around a visit to Northwestern.

The Terrapins also stand 30th in the latest NET ratings, one of the selection committee’s primary metrics in evaluating teams. Their resume is also bolstered by road victories over Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as Rutgers.

Though it seemed certain to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995 just a few weeks ago, Duke has played its way back into contention. The Blue Devils are 11-8 after a four-game winning streak and have raised their NET ranking to #48.

Duke’s latest victory came Monday when freshman DJ Steward’s 21 points and seven assists lifted it over visiting Syracuse 85-71 as a six-point favorite.

 

The Blue Devils have three regular-season games left, hosting Louisville then playing at Georgia Tech and North Carolina.

As its recent win over Virginia showed, Duke can beat anyone at this point and is a good bet to reach the Big Dance.

Speaking of Georgia Tech, it has risen to #36 in the NET. The Yellow Jackets won their third straight game Tuesday, pulling a 69-63 road upset of Virginia Tech as a four-point underdog.

Moses Wright sparked Georgia Tech with 26 points, helping it go a long way toward potentially gaining its first NCAA berth since 2010.

It was their second eye-opening win of the year for the Yellow Jackets along with a home victory over Florida State.

In addition to the home showdown with Duke, Georgia Tech hosts Syracuse and visits Wake Forest.

One team that provides value is Colorado State at +400. The Rams have a 14-4 record, won four of their last five games, stand 45th in the NETand have beaten San Diego State and Utah State on the road.

Bubble Ready to Burst

While Stanford is still favored to make the tournament, the Cardinal is starting to look like a team that will be left out. It has split its last eight games, dropping its record to 14-9, and lost at Washington State 85-76 in triple overtime on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite

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Stanford’s best win came in its opener when it beat Alabama in the Maui Invitational. The Cardinals are 58th in the NET rankings.

Utah State is also fading out of the NCAA picture and looks like a good bet to be sitting home at tournament time. The Aggies are 14-7 but have lost four of their last six games – including getting swept in two games at Boise State last week – and have fallen to #56 in the NET.

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