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Ohio State vs Illinois Big Ten Title Game Odds and Picks

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Dec 4, 2022 · 7:43 PM PST

Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu shoots during the first half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., Thursday, Jan. 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
  • Sunday at 3:30 pm ET, Ohio State faces Illinois with the Big Ten championship on the line
  • Illinois beat Iowa 82-71 in the semis, easily covering the 3.5-point spread; Ohio State upset Michigan as six-point underdogs
  • Get the odds and prediction for the 2021 Big Ten championship game

Sunday, March 14th (3:30 pm ET), the 2021 Big Ten Tournament will come to a close with the No. 5 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (21-8, 12-8 Big Ten) facing the No. 2 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-6, 16-4 Big Ten) at 3:30 pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Both teams covered the spread in their semifinal games. Illinois controlled Iowa from start to finish in an 82-71 win as 3.5-point favorites, while Ohio State took down No. 1 seed Michigan 68-67.

Illinois is a sizable 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

Ohio State vs Illinois Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Over/Under Total
Ohio State +194 +5.5 (-110) Over 151.0 (-102)
Michigan -235 -5.5 (-110) Under 151.0 (-120)

Odds as of March 13th at FanDuel. With sports betting set to launch in Ohio on January 1, 2023, be sure to claim one of the Ohio sports betting promos at one of the top Ohio sports betting apps prior to launch. 

The teams split their regular-season meetings. Ohio State won 87-81 at Illinois in mid-January despite being seven-point underdogs.

The Illini repaid the favor in the last game of their Big Ten schedule, edging the Buckeyes 73-68 in Columbus as 2.5-point ‘dogs.

Dosunmu and Cockburn Are Hot

Illinois followed up a 90-68 rout of Rutgers in the quarterfinals with a comprehensive 11-point victory over the Hawkeyes in the semis. Their two leaders – point guard Ayo Dosunmu (21.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.3 APG) and 7’0 center Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG) – were excellent in both games. Cockburn had 18 points and 12 boards versus Rutgers and a team-high 26 points and eight rebounds against Iowa. Dosunmu had a team-high 23 points against Rutgers and 18 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds against Iowa.

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Only one other member of the team is averaging double-figures in the tournament (Adam Miller, 10.0 PPG), while Trent Frazier (10.5 PPG) accomplished the feat in the team’s 25 regular-season games.

In the two regular-season games against Ohio State, Dosunmu averaged 20.5 points and four assists, but in the loss, he only shot 6-16 from the floor (37.5%). He was much more efficient in the win, going 7-10 from the floor. Cockburn was relatively quiet in both. He had 15 points on a perfect 7-7 from the floor in the January loss and just 12 points (6-11 shooting) and six rebounds in the win last Saturday.

Ohio State Has Turned It Around

The Buckeyes closed the regular season with four straight losses, three at home, and it cost them the double-bye that comes with a top-four seed in the Big Ten tournament. But as a collective, Ohio State seems to have a short memory.  They opened the conference tournament with a 79-75 win over Minnesota that wasn’t as close as the final score suggests. (They led by 14 with 3:25 to play.)

That was followed in the quarterfinals by an 87-78 OT win over Purdue that was closer than it should have been. The Buckeyes led by 18 at halftime yet needed an additional five minutes to punch their ticket to the semis.

The Michigan game was hyper-tight until there were about 11 minutes remaining. That’s when Ohio State went on a 14-2 run, opening up a 56-45 lead. Their late-game ball handling again was a concern, though, and it allowed Michigan to, not only climb back into the game, but have a great chance to win it at the buzzer.

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Fouls were also an issue. Ohio State surrendered 23 free-throws to Michigan, which connected on 21. At the other end, they were an ugly 8-14 from the stripe, surprising for a team that is 27th in DI at 76.9%.

Duane Washington Jr (15.5 PPG, 3.0 APG) has been all-world the last two games. He dropped 20 and 24 against Purdue and Michigan, respectively. Sophomore forward EJ Liddell, the team’s leading scorer in the regular season (16.0 PPG), went for 17 against Purdue and 18 against Michigan, but has shot just 15-41 from the floor in the tournament (36.5%).

Prediction

These are two top-ten teams both in the polls and the advanced rating systems. Illinois is rated third at KenPom and fourth at Torvik. Ohio State is seventh at KenPom and eighth at Torvik. Both project this to be closer than the 5.5-point spread. KenPom predicts 79-75 in favor of Illinois. Torvik has a 77-75 Illinois win.

During Illinois’ current streak of 13 wins in 14 games, five games have been decided by five points or fewer, including the win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ late-season skid was not an accurate picture of this team.  They ran their record to 18-4 prior with three wins over top-15 KenPom teams. If they don’t shoot themselves in the foot with late-game mistakes, they should be able to keep this within five points.

Pick: Ohio State +5.5 (-110)

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