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Ole Miss vs Florida Odds, Spread & Picks (Feb. 15)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Apr 11, 2023 · 4:36 PM PDT

Florida guard Will Richard and forward Colin Castleton celebrate a basket
Florida guard Will Richard (5) and forward Colin Castleton (12) celebrated an and-one as the Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats faced off in Rupp Arena on Saturday evening. Kentucky defeated Florida 72-67. Feb. 4, 2023 Jf Uk Fla Aj6t4671
  • Florida and Ole Miss meet in an SEC game on Wednesday, February 15
  • Florida is a 9.5-point home favorite over Ole Miss at the O’Connell Center
  • Read below for Ole Miss vs Florida odds and prediction

Florida (13-12, 6-6 SEC) is a 9.5-point home favorite over Ole Miss in an SEC game at 6:30 pm ET Wednesday on the SEC Network. The Gators have lost three in a row since beating then-No. 2 Tennessee at home Feb. 1.

Ole Miss (10-15, 2-10) has lost six of its last seven and 12 of its last 14 in coach Kermit Davis’ fifth season. The Rebels’ only two SEC victories have come on the road, at South Carolina and Georgia.

Ole Miss vs Florida Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss Rebels +9.5 (-110) +365 Over 137.5 (-110)
Florida Gators -9.5 (-110) -490 Under 137.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on Feb. 14. Claim the FanDuel promo code

Florida is a 9.5-point favorite against Ole Miss in a series in which the Gators have had the upper hand, at least on the scoreboard. Florida is 7-3 SU but 3-7 ATS in the last 10  meetings of a series that is not always played twice a year. The teams have split the last four games. The Gators are 6-0 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six in Gainesville, and since 2001 are 13-1 SU and 5-9 ATS at home.

 

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The last five games in the series and seven of the last eight have gone under the total. The Gators are 12-13 ATS, 6-6 at home. Ole Miss is 8-15-2 against the number, 3-5 ATS on the road and 4-8 ATS in SEC games. Florida is 10-15 against the over and the Rebels are 12-13.

Florida Slumping on Both Ends

The Gators have lost three in a row and have been in an all-around funk since their most impressive win of the season, a 67-54 victory over then-No. 2 Tennessee at home Feb. 1. Florida has given up an average of 85.7 points per game since in consecutive losses to Kentucky, Alabama and most recently Vanderbilt, which took an 88-80 victory in the Swamp on Saturday. The Gators have made only 41.6 percent of their field goal attempts in the last three games while giving up 32 three-pointers. Rebounding has been a season-long issue because of their four-guard lineup, and they have been out-rebounded in their last five.

Florida plays through 6’11” post Colin Castleton. He leads the team in scoring (16.5 points per game) and rebounds (7.9) and is second in assists (2.7). He enters after his sixth double-double of the season with 25 points, 11 rebounds against Vanderbilt, and he added two blocked shots to pass Al Horford for third place in school history with 191. Castleton is not a physical player and he had trouble at the other end against Vandy 7-footer Liam Robbins, who had 32/10 with four blocks, three on Castleton shots.

Castleton has started every game and guards Will Richard (10.2 points, 39 threes) and Kyle Lofton (8.8 points, a team-high 3.2 assists) have started all but three, but first-year coach Todd Golden has spent the year looking for right combination of big and small.

Ole Miss Shooting Woes

The Rebels have trouble putting the ball in the basket, which has kept them from any sort of consistency. Ole Miss is shooting 42.3 percent from the field, 300th in Division I, and an even-worse 29.5 percent from three-point range, which ranks 346th. Only six teams are worse. The Rebels won their first six games and seven of their first nine before falling off a cliff, which includes a 66-65 home loss to Atlantic Sun North Alabama as a 22.5-point favorite.

Guard 6’4″ Matt Murrell (14.3 points) and one-time Duke forward 6″8 Jaemyn Brakefield (10.0 points, 5.4 rebounds) are the Rebels’ double-figure scorers. Murrell, who has taken 80 more field goal attempts than anyone else on the team, is shooting 37.1 percent, 29.3 from distance. Brakefield is shooting 53.8 percent. Davis has used 14 lineups — 14 — while looking for a fit among eight new players. Former McDonald’s All-American guard Daeshun Ruffin left the program following the Oklahoma State loss Jan. 28.

Fifth-year senior guard Tye Fagan had 17 points off the bench in a 64-61 home loss to South Carolina the last time out Saturday, when the Rebels shot 37.0 percent.

Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction

After a difficult five-game stretch that included three road games and three ranked teams, Florida finds itself in a spot much more to its liking here. The Gators have failed to cover the number in any of their last three losses,  but that was against a different caliber of competition. Poor-shooting Ole Miss is 3-9 ATS in its last 12, and look for that trend to continue as the Gators get well here. Give the points.

  • Pick: Florida -9.5 (-110)
  • Season CFB: 35-22 ATS
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