Oregon State vs Tennessee Picks and Odds
- Oregon State has won three games in a row entering a Midwest Regional game against Tennessee at 1:30 pm ET on Thursday, March 19th
- Tennessee will make its third straight NCAA Tournament appearance but could be without starter John Fulkerson
- Check the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
Oregon State (17-12) has won three games in a row and six of seven as it prepares to meet Tennessee in the first round of the Midwest Regional at 4:30 pm on Thursday. The Beavers are making just their second NCAA Tournament appearance since 1990.
Tennessee (18-8) won 10 of its first 11 games, including four of five in conference play. The Volunteers have split their last eight games and have not lost more than two in a row all season.
Oregon State vs Tennessee Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State Beavers | +280 | +7.5 (-110) | 131.5 (Ov-110) |
| Tennessee Volunteers | -350 | -7.5 (-110) | 131.5 (Un-110) |
Odds from FanDuel on March 16.
Oregon State became the second Cinderella to make the NCAA Tournament when it beat UCLA, Oregon and Colorado to win its first Pac-12 tournament championship. Georgetown clinched its unlikely NCAA berth a few hours earlier Saturday.
The Beavers have been a point-spread monster since a 34-point loss to Arizona on Jan. 14, going 15-3-1 ATS. They are 10-1 ATS since a 29-point loss at Colorado on Feb. 8.
Tennessee has won three of its last five games straight up and ATS, two of the wins and covers coming against Florida. The Volunteers lost to Alabama in SEC tournament semifinals.
Polar Opposites Square Off
Tennessee and Oregon State made the tournament with contrasting groups.
Six-foot-five freshmen guards Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, the Volunteers’ leading scorers, are likely one-and-dones. Two scouting services project Springer and Johnson to be selected among the first 15 picks in the 2021 NBA draft should they leave school.
Springer (12.5 points per game) has made 44.4% of his three-pointers and leads the team in assists and steals. Johnson (11.2 points) and Oregon transfer Victor Bailey Jr. (11.0) are the Vols’ other double-figure scorers.
Oregon State, which starts three seniors, found different heroes in its three Pac-12 tournament wins. Forward and tournament MVP Warith Alatishe had a career-high 24 points in an overtime quarterfinal victory over UCLA and had two double-doubles in the tourney.
Reserve forward Rodrigue Andela had a career-high 13 points in the semis against Oregon and even less-frequently used forward Maurice Calloo had 15 points in the 70-68 victory over Colorado in the finals. Calloo had 10 points in the previous eight games combined.
The Beavers have done a lot of recent damage from the outside. They shot 29-of-66 on threes (43.9%) in the Pac-12 tourney. Sophomore guard Jarod Lucas made 10 three-pointers in the tournament and senior guard Ethan Thompson made five in the victory over Oregon.
Tennessee beat Colorado 56-47 in its season opener Dec. 8.
Vols’ Fulkerson Questionable
Tennessee starting forward John Fulkerson underwent surgery Sunday morning for facial injuries suffered in the 78-66 victory over Florida in the SEC quarterfinals. He did not play in the 73-68 loss to Alabama the next day.
Fulkerson has not been ruled out of the NCAA Tournament, but he will be monitored by school officials. Fulkerson was injured when he took two elbows in the face from Florida’s Omar Payne during a play under the Vols’ basket. Payne was ejected, and he was confronted by several Tennessee players after play was stopped.
A 6-9 senior, Fulkerson is averaging 9.5 points and 5.5 rebounds and has started 55 games the last two seasons. He is one of seven Volunteers averaging at least 24 minutes per game this season. Without Fulkerson, Tennessee went to a smaller lineup against Alabama, which also plays a small group.
Barnes No NCAA Stranger
Tennessee Rick Barnes has taken four teams to the NCAA Tournament — Providence, Clemson, Texas and Tennessee.
Barnes is 24-24 in the tournament, 3-2 with Tennessee the last two seasons. The Longhorns made the tournament in 16 of Barnes’ 17 seasons but won their first game only twice in the last six years.
By the Numbers
Tennessee is 21st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, behind only Loyola Chicago, Alabama, and Memphis. The Vols are limiting opponents to a 39.9% field-goal percentage, 19th in Division I and third among Power Six teams.
Tennessee is 13th in the NCAA Net rankings and is 6-6 in Quad 1 games. Oregon State is 91st in the net rankings, lowest among Power Six teams in the NCAA Tournament, and has five Quad 1 wins.
The Beavers have made 75.7 percent of their free throws, 38th in Division I and 11th among Power Six conferences. Lucas has made 89.7 percent, second in the Power Six.
Oregon State understands what it can and cannot do and plays accordingly. Tennessee might be the best team the Beavers have faced, with all respect to Colorado and Oregon, but it hardly time to buck the trend now.
The pick: Oregon State +7.5 (-110)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
