Purdue Surges in March Madness Odds after Beating Michigan State

• Purdue has won eight of their last nine after starting 6-5
• Even though the Boilermakers are only 14-6, they are the No. 7 team in the KenPom ratings
• All six of the team’s losses have been away from home

What are we to make of the Purdue Boilermakers? It’s not often that we talk about a six-loss team in January as being a serious threat in the NCAA Tournament, but Purdue could be exactly that. After a big win over No. 6 Michigan State, they are on everyone’s radar.

Their odds to win the NCAA Tournament vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. They are +7100 on average …

… but they are as short as +3100 at some sites, and as long as +10000 at others.

Are they a good bet at this point?

Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Tournament: Big Ten Teams

How Good Is Purdue?

The Boilermakers, who were 6-5 at one point, are now 14-6 on the season. Normally, a team with six losses in their first 20 games would be an afterthought, but there are a few things to keep in mind here.

To start, the Big Ten is an absolute gauntlet these days. We’re probably looking at 10 teams from this conference going dancing with 10 also ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top 50. Purdue has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country and all of their losses have come away from home. Four of them have been to top-30 teams. Some of those losses can be forgiven.

? LOOKING BACK: At staying unbeaten in Mackey Arena. #Purdue 73
(6) Michigan State 63#BoilerUp ? pic.twitter.com/OSny7q6jiC

— Purdue Men’s Basketball (@BoilerBall) January 28, 2019

Beyond that, Purdue does well in terms of metrics. Even throughout all of their early struggles, they were never outside of the top 20 in the KenPom rankings. They’re fresh off their most impressive win – a 10-point home win over No. 6 Michigan State – but keep in mind that Purdue was No. 8 in the KenPom rankings (and No. 10 in BPI) before that game. Now they’re up to No. 7.

Offensive Juggernaut

Purdue is led by Carsen Edwards in the backcourt and he’s been special. He’s sixth in the country with 24.2 points per game and is likely to be an All-American. But Purdue’s big win over Michigan State came on a day where Edwards hit just 4-of-19 from the field. While he gets most of the spotlight, there is more to this team than just him.

Carsen Edwards swatting Kenny Goins is one of the best things I’ve ever seen ?? pic.twitter.com/t0wFseGGVU

— Wolverine Corner (@WolverineCorner) January 27, 2019

Overall, this is an elite offensive team that’s quite balanced. Five different players scored in double figures against the Spartans.

Are the Boilermakers Worth a Bet to Win the NCAA Tournament?

As mentioned, Purdue is as short as +3100 at some sportsbooks, but oddsmakers still list them at +10000.

GET UP Carsen Edwards pic.twitter.com/w8TbAHliSD

— Stew? (@StewyHoops) November 19, 2018

Overall, I’m concerned with the fact that this Boilermaker team just hasn’t shown much away from home. You don’t get home games during March Madness.

[Matt] Painter has had some strong teams … but he’s never been past the Sweet 16.

The other issue here is that, under head coach Matt Painter, the Boilermakers have consistently fallen short in the NCAA Tournament. Painter has had some strong teams, like the 30-7 team in 2017-18 or the 2009-10 and 2016-17 teams that finished atop the Big Ten standings, but he’s never been past the Sweet 16.

They’ve had a great week, but I’m not interested in buying in at this high-point apart from a small bet at +10000.