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204

Red-Hot Villanova Hasn’t Budged in March Madness Odds

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 12:27 PM PDT

Villanova-Wildcats
The Wildcats have won 10 in a row to improve to 18-4. Photo credit: Bryan Horowitz.
  • The Wildcats started the season 2-2 with one of the losses coming to Furman.
  • The Wildcats were 8-4 after 12 games, but have won 10 straight since.
  • Villanova is still a +4000 longshot to win the NCAA Tournament.

The Villanova Wildcats are the defending NCAA Champs but they’ve had an up-and-down season. They started 2-2 and then 8-4, with some embarrassing losses. That includes a 27-point home failure to Michigan as well as two shocking losses to non-power conference programs.

They’ve righted the ship with a 10-game winning streak but their betting odds to win it all haven’t changed.

Are they worth a bet now?

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds

Team 2019 NCAA Tournament Odds
Duke +170
Virginia +800
Gonzaga +1000
Tennessee +750
Michigan +750
Michigan State +1100
Kentucky +1000
North Carolina +2400
Nevada +2000
… …
Villanova +4000

Villanova Started Slow

Given how quickly teams like Duke and Kentucky reload after losing a lineup’s worth of NBA draft picks, we’ve sometimes forgotten it takes time to adjust to such losses.

Villanova, who won the NCAA Tournament last season and in 2016, sent four players to the top 33 picks of the 2018 NBA Draft. Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Omari Spellman, and Jalen Brunson were the team’s top-four scorers from last season and averaged 60.8 points per game.

That’s a lot to overcome and explains part of the early season struggles. Can ya give a team a little break? They started 8-4, not 0-12.

The issue with giving them a break is that there were two particularly ugly losses. Nobody is going to flay them for losing to Michigan or on the road to No. 1 Kansas. The issue was losing at home to Furman and on the road to Pennsylvania.

Defending national champions aren’t supposed to lose games like that – especially when favored by 16 as they were against Furman.

Heating Up of Late

While the Wildcats may have struggled early, they’ve been red-hot of late. Entering Wednesday’s game versus Creighton, they’ve won 10 in a row and have put their rough start behind them. They are a perfect 9-0 in Big East play and probably won’t face any tough competition until the conference championship.

 

The offense is on fire as they’ve been above 40% from the field in five of their last seven games. They’ve also had an effective field goal percentage of 50% or higher in six straight (and 62% or higher in four of their last six). What’s really come to life is their three-point shooting, which has been at 42% or better in five of their last six.

Are They Better Now?

Here’s the question: is Villanova in fact back or have they merely beaten up on a soft conference schedule? Yes, Villanova beat a No. 24 St. John’s team but that squad has dropped four of six. The rest of the Big East (outside of No. 10 Marquette) is lousy. Georgetown is third in the Big East standings at 14-8, Creighton is fourth at 13-9, followed by the aforementioned struggling Red Storm at 16-6. Nobody is mistaking this conference for the ACC where they are currently six teams in the Top 25.

But at the same time, Villanova is not just edging by, they are blowing opponents out. They’ve won their last 10 games by a margin of 12.1 points per outing. Their offense is now ranked seventh in the country according to the KenPom rankings. The defense still has work to do (88th) but remember that this team went pretty far with a great offense last year.

How the Odds Have Changed

Villanova’s odds have jumped around quite a bit. They were as low as +730 before the season but after a 2-2 start, which included a 27-point loss at home to Michigan, the Wildcats tumbled into the 30/1 range. Following a couple of more losses in December, they fell to 50/1. They’re still at +4000.

For the No. 9 team in the country, that might seem like good value. At this point, though, we don’t know just how good this team really is. They haven’t been battle tested enough. They’re hot right now but until I see them handle a few top-flight teams, I’m not interested in their futures.

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