San Diego State a 5.5-Point Favorite Over Utah State in Mountain West Championship Game
- #5 San Diego State meets Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament championship game in Las Vegas
- San Diego State is the No. 1 seed in the tournament and Utah State is seeded second
- Read below for a deeper look at Saturday’s matchup
San Diego State is looking to pull off a double-double.
San Diego State (30-1) will attempt to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament as it meets Utah State (25-8) in the championship game Saturday (March 7) at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:30pm ET. The Aztecs also won the MWC’s regular-season title.
Utah State vs San Diego State Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | +210 | +5.5 (-110) | Under 130 (-101) |
| San Diego State | -250 | -5.5 (-110) | Over 130 (-119) |
Odds taken March 7
San Diego State, the tournament’s top seed, had to rally to beat fifth-seeded Boise State 81-68 in the semifinals on Friday (March 6), covering as a nine-point favorite.
The Aztecs fell behind by 16 points, 37-21, in the first half, before pulling into a 40-40 tie by halftime and securing the 13-point win.
In the other semifinal, second-seeded Utah State held off an upset bid by No. 11 seed Wyoming for an 89-82 victory. The Aggies couldn’t cover the 15.5-point spread.
Utah State is the defending tournament championship. The Aggies beat San Diego State in last year’s final.
MWC Tournament Bracket
San Diego State Slowing
San Diego State has been less than dominant after starting the season with 26 consecutive wins.
The Aztecs took their only loss of the season Feb. 22, falling 66-63 at home to UNLV. While the Aztecs have won four straight since, they have had to come from behind each time, including the big deficit against Boise State.
Junior guard Malachi Flynn had 22 points, five assists and five rebounds to lead the way against Boise State. He was both the MWC’s Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year.
Senior guard K.J. Feagin added 21 points as was 5-of-11 from three-point range.
The Aztecs trailed Air Force by four points at halftime in the quarterfinals before turning it on in the second half and coming away with a 73-60 victory. Junior guard Jordan Schakel knocked down five triples on his way to a team-high 17 points.
Merrill Leading Utah State Charge
Senior guard Sam Merrill’s 27 points and seven assists led Utah State over Wyoming in the semis. He scored seven points during a 13-0 run late in the game that snapped a 66-66 tie.
The Aggies also got a 21-point, six-block performance from sophomore forward Neemius Queta.
In Utah State’s 75-70 victory over New Mexico in the quarterfinals, Merrill poured in 29 points. He is averaging 19.4 points a game this season for a team that was favored to win the MWC to start the year before finishing second.
Here are how Utah State and San Diego State stack up in various Ken Pomeroy categories:
Head-to-Head Matchup Statistics
| +14.37 (43rd) | Adjusted efficiency margin | +25.03 (4th) |
| 115.4 (9th) | Adjusted offensive efficiency | 109.2 (52nd) |
| 94.8 (56th) | Adjusted defensive efficiency | 90.4 (10th) |
| 67.7 (222nd) | Adjusted tempo | 64.9 (330th) |
The Third Time Around
Utah State is getting its third crack at San Diego State this season after losing 77-68 as a 3.5-point underdog on Jan. 4 in San Diego and 80-68 as a 6.5-point dog on Feb. 1 in Logan.
Merrill scored 26 points in the first meeting but San Diego State had more balance as Flynn led four Aztecs in double figures with 22 points. Merrill was limited to 16 points in the second matchup. Junior forward Mike Mitchell had a career-high 28 points for the Aztecs, 24 in the second half when San Diego State overcame a 10-point deficit.
The old expression in college basketball says it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season. As good as San Diego State is, the Aztecs have quite a task in trying to take down Utah State and Merrill three times.
San Diego State is the only team in the country without a loss in either an away or neutral-court game. However, it has not been playing well down the stretch.
The pick: Utah State +5.5 (-110)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
