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San Diego State vs Utah State Odds and Picks

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Jan 13, 2021 · 6:31 PM PST

San Diego St Basketball players cheer from the bench
San Diego State players cheer during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against BYU Friday, Dec. 18, 2020, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
  • San Diego State (9-2) battles Utah State (9-3) on Thursday, Jan. 14, at 9pm ET
  • The Aggies, who haven’t lost since Dec. 5, host the first of two games this week against the Aztecs
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

In the first of a two-game miniseries this week, Utah State hosts Mountain West foe San Diego State on Thursday at 9pm ET. The Aggies (9-3) haven’t lost since Dec. 5, and they are off to a 6-0 start in the conference.

On paper, this has the makings of a really tightly contested matchup. Here’s a look at the odds:

San Diego State vs Utah State Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Total
San Diego State +112 +1.5 (-105) Over 131.5 (-110)
Utah State -132 -1.5 (-115) Under 131.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel as of Jan. 13th, 2020.

How They’ve Fared So Far

Utah State admittedly did not get off to a rollicking start this year, dropping three of its first four games to VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. All three of those teams are in KenPom’s top 100 rankings, but outside the top 50 (so they’re good teams, but not great).

Since then, the Aggies have won eight in a row, though none of their wins have come against very impressive opponents. Only one of Utah State’s nine wins has come against a KenPom top-150 team — everyone else (including all the teams on this win streak) ranks outside the top 200.

In each of its past six wins, Utah State has won by 19 or more points. Frankly, they haven’t been tested in a while. San Diego State will change that.

The Aztecs have a much more robust resume to this point, having only faced teams inside KenPom’s top 150. Their best win was also their first, in 73-58 fashion over 9-2 UCLA. They’ve also beaten Arizona State, Colorado State and Saint Mary’s, all of whom are KenPom top-100 teams.

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With an experience-laden group (five of their eight rotation players are seniors), the Aztecs are poised to build off of last year’s impressive 30-2 campaign.

ATS Analysis

The Aggies are 7-3 against the spread, including six ATS wins in a row. And they’re winning with conviction, covering by 10 or more points in five of those victories. Utah State is only 2-2 ATS at home, but then again they haven’t played any home games since before Christmas.

In terms of point totals, Utah State has seen the under hit in six of 10 games, including four of the past five.

San Diego State is in a mini ATS slump, having lost three of their past four. Overall, they’re 5-5 ATS. In those three recent ATS losses, the Aztecs have fallen by a margin of at least eight points. Oddly enough, the Aztecs have played just one true road game — and they covered with a straight up win as 2-point underdogs against Arizona State.

The over has hit in half of the Aztecs’ 10 games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams played a rare three games against each other last year (most teams only play twice, but they snuck in some conference tourney action before the COVID-19 shutdown), and San Diego won two of three ATS and straight up.

The Aztecs saw three starters from the 2019-20 team depart, while two of the Aggies’ starters have moved on. What we view as the great separator here is the quality of competition: Utah State hasn’t seen anyone as talented as San Diego State, but the inverse is not true.

We like the Aztecs to grab a straight up win on the road and hand Utah State its first conference loss.

Pick: San Diego State (+112)

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