SMU vs Dayton Odds, Lines, and Spread

• Dayton Flyers aim to make it 22 wins in a row as they host the surging SMU Mustangs on Saturday afternoon
• Mustangs have opened the season with three straight wins, but are winless in their past six road dates
• We’ve got you covered with all the odds ahead of Saturday afternoon’s clash at University of Dayton Arena

The Dayton Flyers look to extend their current straight-up win streak to 22 games when they host the SMU Mustangs on Saturday afternoon (2:00 pm ET, Dec. 5th) as 1.5-point favorites in the NCAA basketball odds. The Flyers kept their year-long streak going with a narrow 66-63 win over Eastern Illinois in Thursday’s season opener. They now sport a 19-0 SU record at home since March 2019.

The Mustangs travel to University of Dayton Arena for Saturday afternoon’s contest after outpacing the Houston Baptist Huskies in a 102-75 win on Wednesday. With the win, SMU improved to 3-0 on the season, but look to rewrite a dismal road narrative in their first away date of the season.

SMU Mustangs vs Dayton Flyers Odds

Odds as of Dec. 4th at FanDuel.

Can Flyers Duplicate Last Season’s Success?

The Flyers have a tough act to follow after closing out last season perched at No. 3 on the AP Top 25 rankings. The club has big holes to fill after seeing Obi Toppin enter the NBA Draft, and seniors Trey Landers and Ryan Mikesell graduate. That is reflected on the KenPom ratings, where Dayton enters the weekend pegged at No. 59, well back of last season’s closing position at No. 4. With Toppin gone, senior guard Jalen Crutcher is expected to take over as the Flyers’ top scoring threat. Crutcher trailed only Toppin with 15.1 points per game last season, while leading the team with 4.9 assists per game, and was one of four starters to crack double digits against the Panthers earlier this week.

@DaytonMBB stave off a ferocious EIU rally to win 66-63 to start the 2020-21 season.

The Flyers were led in scoring by Ibi Watson (16 points), with double-digit scoring from Jalen Crutcher (13), Chase Johnson (14), and Jordy Tshimanga (10). Rodney Chatman added 9 points. pic.twitter.com/cDH7YQuxF4

— Flyer News Sports (@FlyerNewsSports) December 2, 2020

However, Crutcher was also one of several Flyers to turn in sloppy performances, committing four total turnovers as the Panthers erased a 15-point second-half deficit to make it a one-point game in the dying seconds of Tuesday’s contest.  And while Dayton has dominated on the scoreboard, they have been unreliable at the sportsbooks. The Flyers sport a middling 13-13-1 ATS record since last November despite being regularly pegged as massive double-digit chalk. They have not fared much better as small home favorites, going 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in their past 10 at home while favored by three or less.

SMU Ride Fast Start into Dayton

The Mustangs face their stiffest test of the young season after beating up on inferior opposition in each of their first three outings. In addition to running up the score against Houston Baptist, SMU claimed victory by an average margin of 33.5 points in wins over Sam Houston State and Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. While impressive, those victories come as no surprise, with none of SMU’s first three opponents ranking among the top 300 on the Kenpom ratings.

Highlights: SMU is 2-0 after a 91-54 win vs A&M-Corpus Christi 🔵🔴 #PonyUp pic.twitter.com/xYV6LUuLgm

— SMU Basketball (@SMUBasketball) December 1, 2020

Indeed, Dayton is clearly the toughest non-conference opponent on SMU’s schedule. And with just three positions separating them on the Kenpom ratings, these two teams are evenly matched. The Mustangs hold a narrow edge over Dayton on Adjusted Offense (108.8 vs 108.2), and on Adjusted Defense (93.6 vs 94.1). However, the Mustangs must overcome two enormous challenges if they are to remain unbeaten.

Road Woes, Jolly’s Absence Present Challenges for SMU

SMU were terrible on the road last season, and ride a six-game SU and ATS slide into Saturday’s contest. Overall, the squad has strung together consecutive wins on the road just once since the start of 2019, a three-game surge in November of last season. In addition, they have covered in just three of nine road dates while pegged as underdogs by three or fewer points since 2015.

It ain’t ova til the 4th quarter, don’t count me out too soon #PonyUp 🐎 #VictoryLap pic.twitter.com/skorKPVQI7

— Tyson Jolly (@tysonjolly) December 2, 2020

Of greater concern is the continued uncertain status of senior guard Tyson Jolly. The team’s leading scorer last season, Jolly has yet to hit the floor this season for personal reasons, and has raised doubts about his future with the program with frequent, cryptic tweets. Junior guard Kendric Davis has stepped up in Jolly’s absence, leading the team with 21.3 points, 9.7 assists, and 2.7 steals per game. Davis also played a mammoth role as the Mustangs pulled away from the Huskies after halftime on Wednesday, assisting on nine second half buckets.

Kendric Davis tied his career-high and the @American_MBB record with 13 assists. https://t.co/X6widLxfZd

— SMU Stats & Info (@SMUStatsInfo) December 3, 2020

With the Mustangs enjoying a fast start, and Dayton still shaking off the rust after seeing the start of their second delayed, Saturday’s contest could mark the end of both SMU’s road slide and the Flyers’ epic win streak.

Pick: SMU to win (+108)