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SMU vs Oregon Odds and Picks (Nov 12)

Chris Hatfield

by Chris Hatfield in College Basketball

Updated Nov 12, 2021 · 2:55 AM PST

Oregon head coach Dana Altman talks with Oregon center Nate Bittle
Oregon head coach Dana Altman talks with Oregon center Nate Bittle (32) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Nov. 9, 2021, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson)
  • Oregon and SMU face off at 11:00 pm Friday night
  • The Ducks will be in for a battle against a veteran-led Mustang team
  • Read below for an analysis and pick

It is an intriguing contest when No. 13 Oregon (1-0) hosts SMU (1-0) Friday Night at 11pm. The game will be televised on the Pac-12 Network.The SMU Mustangs are coming off an easy 24-point against McNeese State in their last outing. Oregon comes into Friday off the strength of a 83-66 win against Texas Southern.

Oregon vs SMU odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
SMU +6.5 (-105) +225 U 146(-110)
Oregon -6.5 (-110) -280 O 146 (-110)

Odds via Draftkings on November 11th.

Oregon enters the season as the second choice to win the Pac-12 (+350) and this writer’s choice to do exactly that. The Ducks made their fifth Sweet Sixteen under head coach Dana Altman last season. They battled through several COVID issues and won another Pac-12 regular-season title. They have plenty questions to answer in 2021, but they also have plenty of talent to help answer those questions.

SMU an Experienced Team

Credit to Oregon for scheduling a tough mid-major squad in November. That’s exactly who SMU is and there is no guarantee a win helps Oregon much. The Mustangs bring a starting lineup to Eugene that features all seniors. They are led by 5’11 guard Kendric Davis, a unanimous All American Conference First Team selection. He dropped 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists against McNeese State to open the season.

SMU went 11-6 in a COVID-shortened season last year. They lost a heartbreaker to Houston in the AAC Championship. A win would have sent them to the NCAA Tournament. They were competitive in every game and likely better than their record indicated.

Last season, the Mustangs were one of the best transition offenses in the country. Transition chances were over 20% of their offense. They averaged 1.1 points per possession there. Davis led many of those transition opportunities, alongside Feron Hunt (now in the NBA). The Mustangs generally play at a reasonable tempo but they like to run; when they can do that, they become very tough to beat.

Oregon Flying Under the Radar

The word “underrated” is as synonymous with Oregon as Dana Altman is. Sometimes the Ducks start strong, sometimes they don’t. Yet each season, they are a team that heats up, looks primed for March, then goes undervalued by Vegas along with the public. I think that happens yet again with this Oregon team.

Altman lost six of his nine rotational players from last year’s roster. He lost all three of his top scorers. Because of that, they’ll take a moment to gel, although the pieces are very much there. Rutgers transfer Jacob Young is a legitimate high-level point guard. He averaged 14 points per game. He was the primary ball handler for a Scarlet Knights team with limited talent outside Geo Baker.

You don’t replace Chris Duarte but Young is a good option. Look for him to improve as the season goes on and to become a high-level point guard by the time March arrives.

Last season, the Ducks lacked front-court size and that was a big reason why they lost in the Tournament. That won’t be the case now. They have depth and a star-studded group of four former top-100 centers. It’s highlighted by N’Faly Dante from Bamako, Mali. Dante started all six games for Oregon before being injured last season. In those games he averaged 8 points and just over 5 rebounds.

Much like his counterparts, I think he’ll take a bit of time to adjust back up to game speed and gel with the rest of his team. When Dante finally does, the Ducks will be a group to watch on the national scale. They’ll have size, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone in the Country. The team you see Friday night will be quite different than the one you see a few months from now.

Prediction

I’m high on Oregon and I picked them to win the Pac-12 this season but I’m going against them here. If the Mustangs played this game a month from now, they may lose by double-digits. But this is November and SMU is getting Oregon at the perfect time.

This is a sneaky team coming into Eugene. They won’t be intimidated by being outsized or the name on the opponents jersey. Last season, Oregon ranked in the bottom half of the NCAA in transition defense. As noted, that’s where SMU thrived.

That, coupled with the team still needing time to get together, will spell doom for the Ducks. Not only am I taking the Mustangs to cover the 6.5-point spread, I’m picking SMU to pull off the shocker.

The Pick: SMU ML (+225) and SMU +6.5 (-110)

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