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Streaking Baylor Still 200-1 to Win NCAA Tournament

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 12:04 PM PDT

Close-up image of a Baylor Bears basketball jersey.
Baylor has won six in a row and is tied for 1st in the Big 12, yet their March Madness odds remain unchanged. Photo by Kelby Wingert, III Corps and Fort Hood Public Affairs (public domain).
  • Baylor is tied for the Big 12 lead but remain a huge underdog to win the National Title.
  • The Bears started the season slowly, but have racked up six straight wins.
  • Is Baylor a legitimate March Madness contender?

While most of the sports world was preoccupied by Super Bowl festivities this past weekend, the Baylor Bears were quietly trouncing TCU en route to their sixth straight victory.

The win kept Baylor tied atop the Big 12 standings, but despite their recent surge, they don’t show up in the AP Top 25 rankings, and their National Title Odds are a whopping 200-1 (or +20000), the ninth-longest among Big 12 teams.

Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Tournament

Team Odds to Win 2019 NCAAB National Championship
Kansas Jayhawks +1600
Texas Tech Red Raiders +5000
Iowa State Cyclones +7000
Kansas State Wildcats +9000
Oklahoma Sooners +11000
TCU Horned Frogs +12500
Texas Longhorns +12500
West Virginia Mountaineers +13000
Baylor Bears +20000

Their long odds are particularly confusing when you factor in they’ve beaten five of the eight teams ahead of them within the last month.

Overcoming a Slow Start

The Bears began the season with an embarrassing home loss to Texas Southern, and then suffered another surprising home defeat to SFA a few weeks later.  They opened up conference play with a loss at TCU, but ever since then they’ve been on fire, despite losing two key players including Tristan Clark.

Their defense is ranked top-26 nationally, but it’s the offense that has fuelled the turnaround.   They’ve scored at least 73 points in each of their last six contests, led Makai Mason, who is a top contender for Big 12 Player of the Year.

They’ve also been dominant on the glass, especially at the offensive end, grabbing offensive rebounds on 50% of their misses against both TCU and Kansas.

Reason to be Optimistic

The Big 12 is wide open and the Jayhawks run of 14 straight conference titles is in serious jeopardy.  They’re just 5-4 in their last nine and have suffered two key losses up front.  Baylor will be favored in each of its next three games, and if they can run this win streak to nine, they’ll be in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 race.

Is Baylor worth a Bet?

They rank first in the conference in points, assists, threes made and three point percentage.  They’re led by one of college basketball’s top coaches and they’re one of only three Big 12 teams to be ranked inside Kenpom’s top-30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Their odds don’t reflect how well they’re playing and it feels like they still have the stench of a team that was picked to finish 8th in the Big 12 on them.  200-1 is ludicrous price for a team that could end up winning a prestigious conference title.

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