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UC Santa Barbara vs Creighton Odds, Lines, and Spread

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Basketball

Updated Mar 19, 2021 · 11:24 AM PDT

Marcus Zegarowski grabbing own jersey while celebrating
Creighton's Marcus Zegarowski (11) celebrates after scoring during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Seton Hall in Omaha, Neb., Saturday, March 7, 2020. Creighton won 77-60. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
  • The No. 5 seed Creighton Bluejays battle the No. 12 seed UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in a West Region first-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament
  • This is UCSB’s first trip to the Big Dance since 2011, while Creighton will try to advance past the opening game for the first time since 2014
  • Read below for odds, analysis, and best bet for this matchup

The No. 5 seed Creighton Bluejays (20-8, 14-6 Big East), who return four starters and five of their top six scorers from last season’s team that was ranked No. 7 in the final AP poll, battle the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (22-4, 13-3 Big West) in a West Region first-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, March 20, in Indianapolis.

Tip is set for 3:30 pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Creighton’s junior point guard, Marcus Zegarowski (15.5 points per game and 4.3 assists per game), is the team’s leading scorer and one of five Bluejays averaging in double-figures this season. Meantime, UCSB is led by JaQuori McLaughlin, the Big West Player of the Year and Tournament MVP. He’s averaging 16.2 points and 5.2 assists per game.

Greg McDermott’s crew is a 7.5-point favorite over Joe Pasternack’s in the always dangerous 5-vs-12 contest.

UC Santa Barbara vs Creighton Odds

Team Spread at FanDuel Moneyline Total
UC Santa Barbara +7.5 (-116) +265 O 138 (-110)
Creighton -7.5 (-106) -330 U 138 (-110)

Odds as of March 17.

Dangerous ‘Dog

Since the tournament expanded in 1985, a No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed 35.7% of the time (50-90 overall) in the classic upset matchup. Three lower-seeded teams beat the higher-seeded opponent in the last Big Dance.

UC Santa Barbara is certainly capable of being one of the four teams to continue that trend this year after dominating two-time reigning Big West regular-season champion UC Irvine in the tourney title game, 79-63 Saturday.

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The Gauchos have only lost once this calendar year (a 68-52 defeat at UC Riverside on Feb. 27), winning 18 of 19 since losing back-to-back games against UCI on Dec. 27 and Dec. 28 to open conference play.

One of the hottest teams in the country, UCSB has McLaughlin and Big West Coach of the Year Pasternack leading the way. The former Indiana Hoosier has a four-year record of 88-33 in Goleta — good for a .727 winning percentage, the best in school history. UCSB has also recorded four straight 20-win seasons for the first time in school history.

The Gauchos might be one of the best teams you haven’t heard about and Creighton should be concerned.

In the Past?

The Bluejays have the major postseason experience edge in this spot, as the program is making its 22nd NCAA Tournament appearance overall and 13th in the last 23 years. By comparison, this will be UCSB’s first March Madness appearance since 2011 and only the program’s sixth overall appearance.

But after Creighton’s performance in the Big East Tournament title game, a 73-48 blowout loss to Georgetown Saturday, can McDermott’s squad be trusted?

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Creighton shot a paltry 29% from the field against the Hoyas, allowing a 20-3 run to close the first half and a 16-3 run to start the second last weekend at Madison Square Garden.

Zegarowski is part of a mature group that has weathered the recent off-court controversy regarding McDermott’s racially insensitive remarks. But you have to wonder where the team is at mentally after being so dominated by an inferior GU group.

The Matchup

The Gauchos are stout defensively, featuring the ninth-best shot-blocking percentage in college basketball (6.0%) and 11th-best steal percentage (6.8%), while the Bluejays are simply one of the most efficient offensive outfits in the game, scoring a 14th-best 114.9 points per 100 possessions.

But there’s still concerns on the Creighton side. After a pair of easy victories against an overmatched Butler team,the Bluejays barely beat UConn in the tourney semis and lost three other games over the last three-and-a-half weeks.

Meantime, UCSB has shown a balanced attack all season and the Gauchos are terrific offensively. In addition to McLaughlin, the team features junior forward Amadou Sow, a First Team All-Big West choice, who was also a member of the All-Tournament Team. Sow is averaging 13.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, but averaged 18.7 and 9.0 per game in the league tournament.

McDermott’s group has the offensive firepower to compete with any team, but this feels like another 12-5 upset in the making. If not, you’re getting 7.5 points with the Gauchos. I’m not going all-in on UCSD — but I’ll take the ‘dog and the points.

The pick: UC Santa Barbara +7.5 (-116)

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