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UCLA vs Gonzaga Final Four Odds and Picks

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Apr 5, 2021 · 9:44 AM PDT

Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs, and Andrew Nembhard celebrating
Gonzaga forward Corey Kispert (24), Jalen Suggs (1) and Andrew Nembhard (3) celebrate during the second half of an Elite 8 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium, Tuesday, March 30, 2021, in Indianapolis. Gonzaga won 85-66. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • No. 1 Gonzaga brings a 34-game winning streak into the NCAA semifinals against UCLA at 8:34 pm ET on Saturday
  • UCLA is the second team in NCAA Tournament history to go from the First Four to the Final Four
  • Check out the odds, analysis, and betting predictions, below

Gonzaga (30-0) has won 34 straight games, the last 27 by double-digits, as it prepares to meet UCLA in the Final Four at 8:34 pm ET on Saturday, April 3rd.  The Bulldogs are attempting to become the eighth undefeated national champion and are 14.5-point favorites to advance to Monday’s title game against the winner of Houston/Baylor.

UCLA (22-9) won twice in overtime and once by two points while joining Virginia Commonwealth as the only teams to reach the Final Four from the First Four play-in round. The Bruins entered the tournament on a four-game losing streak, all to Pac-12 teams that made the NCAA field.

UCLA vs Gonzaga Odds

Team Moneyline at DraftKings Spread Total
UCLA Bruins +700 +14.5 (-114) 146.0 (Ov-110)
Gonzaga Bulldogs -1430 -14.5 (-107) 146.0 (Un-110)

Odds as of March 18.

Gonzaga is the third undefeated team to reach the Final Four since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Both UNLV (30-0, 1990) and Kentucky (34-0, 2015) lost in the semifinals. The 1976 Indiana Hoosiers are the last undefeated team to win it all.

UCLA, with point guard Tyger Campbell running the offense, has a plus-23 turnover margin in its five tournament games (plus-4.6 per game). It has committed no more than eight turnovers in any game and had just four in a 73-62 victory over BYU.

Gonzaga Stars Step Up

Freshman guard Jalen Suggs enhanced his status as a top NBA prospect with 18 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in a decisive 85-66 Elite Eight victory over USC, and he was not alone.

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Mobile 6’10 forward Drew Timme had 23 points, five rebounds and four assists against USC, and he has been a constant force throughout the tournament. Timme is averaging 21.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 61.5% from the field.

Suggs, Timme and the Zags had no trouble working around 7′ USC center Evan Mobley. They shot 50% from the field and had a 41-29 rebounding edge. The Zags have outscored their first four opponents by 96 points.

Gonzaga leads NCAA Division I in scoring (91.6 points per game) and field goal percentage (54.9%). Villanova (2018) is the only champion since 2011 to have the highest-rated offense. Gonzaga No. 1 in 2019, the last time the tournament was played, but lost to Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.

The Johnny Juzang Show

UCLA guard Johnny Juzang as not fully immersed into the offense until the Bruins’ modified their attack after a season-ending knee injury to Chris Smith on Jan. 2, but he has become the unquestioned go-to guy in the tournament.

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Juzang, 6’5, had 28 points in the Bruins’ 51-49 Elite Eight victory over Michigan despite missing a few minutes when he tweaked his right ankle. He was off the floor for several defensive possessions down the stretch, but the ball goes through his hands on almost every offensive possession.

He is averaging 21.6 points per game and has made 12-of-34 three-pointers in the tournament. He ia a volume shooter, but the Bruins do not seem to mind.

Comparison Shopping

Gonzaga and UCLA have had similar success against common West Coast Conference opponents BYU, Pepperdine, and San Diego,  an indication this game could be closer than the oddsmakers imagine.

Gonzaga beat BYU three times this season by 17, 11, and 10 points. Perhaps motivated by the fact that the Bulldogs’ last loss was 91-78 at BYU on Feb. 22, 2020, coach Mark Few put his best five forward in the 82-71 victory in Provo this season, inserting guard Andrew Nembhard into the starting lineup for good.

Gonzaga beat Pepperdine by 25 and 22 points and beat San Diego by 28 and 37.

UCLA beat BYU 73-62 in its second NCAA Tournament game after getting past Michigan State in overtime in the First Four. The Bruins beat Pepperdine by nine and San Diego by 27.

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Most recently, Juzang had 27 points on 10-of-16 shooting, Jules Bernard had 16 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. had 13 points and eight rebounds in the Bruins’ 73-62 victory on March 20.

Jalen Suggs had 23 points, five rebounds and five assists and five Bulldogs scored in double figures in their 88-78 victory over BYU in the WCC tournament finals March 9.

Running It Up

Gonzaga is attempting to become the 11th team to win an NCAA title by outscoring its opponent by double figures in every game. It has been done 13 times, including three times by UCLA.

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The list includes the elites: Oregon (1939), Kentucky (1949), San Francisco (1956), Ohio State (1960), UCLA (1967, 1970, 1973), Michigan State (1979, 2000), Indiana (1981), Duke (2001), North Carolina (2009), and Villanova (2018).

Duke, North Carolina, and Villanova had to win six games en route to the title. The field was expanded to 64 teams and a full six rounds in 1985.

By the Numbers

UCLA has covered all five of its NCAA Tournament games, four as an underdog. Gonzaga has covered four in a row after failing to cover a 14-point line against BYU on March 9.

Both teams have gone under the total  in three of their last four tournament games, and the Bulldogs have been under the total in four of their last six. Fourteen is just a few too many points to lay against a team that shoots well, handles the ball effectively and can maintain tempo.

The pick: UCLA +14.5 (-106)

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