Tar Heels Are 10.5-Point Underdogs at Gonzaga After Cole Anthony Injury News

• No. 2 Gonzaga hasn’t lost at home in almost two calendar years
• North Carolina has lost four of five, including a home loss to Wofford last time out
• The Cole Anthony-less Tar Heels are getting double digits at the Kennel on Wednesday (Dec. 18)

December has been a harsh month for the now-unranked North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4, 1-1 away). After three consecutive losses, the preseason No. 14 team is out of the AP poll for the first time since February 2014. What’s worse, their top freshman, Cole Anthony, received some devastating injury news on Tuesday (more on that in a bit).

Now, on Wednesday (Dec. 18), they’re off to the Pacific Northwest to face a vicious No. 2 Gonzaga team that simply does not lose at home. The Bulldogs (11-1, 6-0 home) are among the top teams in the latest 2020 NCAA Tournament odds and opened as 10.5-point favorites for tomorrow’s game at the Kennel.

Odds taken Dec. 17.

Cole Anthony Is Out

The odds for Wednesday’s Gonzaga/UNC game came later than every other matchup for one particular reason — the uncertain status of Tar Heels freshman point guard Cole Anthony.

Well, the status is clear now. Anthony had an arthroscopic procedure on his knee on Monday to repair a partially torn meniscus. He will miss four to six weeks, according to the school.

Cole Anthony expected to miss 4-6 weeks after arthroscopic procedure:https://t.co/fJmirF3h5r#CarolinaFamily pic.twitter.com/hOSFUjcwrq

— UNCMBBStats (@UNCMBBStats) December 17, 2019

How critical of a loss is Anthony? The fourth-overall recruit, according to 247 Sports, is averaging 19.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.9 steals this season. That kind of production will be very difficult to replace.

Bettors can choose this bright side, if they want — with Anthony out for a while, UNC’s title odds will likely continue to decline. Assuming he’s able to return in January as planned, the Tar Heels could make for a solid dark-horse pick.

Big, Bad Bulldogs

Gonzaga has one blip on its radar: an 18-point loss to Michigan on Nov. 29.

Business Trip ✔️
? ✔️
Jon Teske (All-Tourney & MVP) ✔️
Isaiah Livers (All-Tourney) ✔️#GoBlue 〽️? pic.twitter.com/XI17lq7lTi

— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) November 30, 2019

Since then, though, the Bulldogs have won three in a row including wins over top-50 KenPom teams Washington (No. 50) and Arizona (No. 15), both on the road. That’s how you put a loss behind you.

Our night in the desert ? #UnitedWeZag pic.twitter.com/JyoFGg36NN

— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) December 15, 2019

They don’t lose at home (28-straight wins) and they don’t lose on the road (11-straight wins). So how do you beat Gonzaga?

Simply put, you have to fill the basket. The Bulldogs have topped 70 points in each game so far, including five games of 90 or more points. Their offensive efficiency is ranked third by KenPom and they have the 22nd-shortest average time of possession (out of 353 schools).

ATS Analysis

UNC is 2-8 against the spread this year, but 1-1 as the underdog (with the win coming over a strong Oregon team). Of course, they had Anthony for every game so far except Sunday’s loss to Wofford, so future spreads are likely to be more lenient.

Gonzaga is 7-5 ATS, including three-straight wins. They’ve also hit the over in seven straight (and nine of 12 overall), while UNC has been under in nine of 10 games.

Decision Time

The Tar Heels have too good of a coach, too deep a team, and too storied a history to let Anthony’s injury destroy their season. But it’s reasonable to think some time is required to sort out their game plan without him (as evidenced by the loss to Wofford).

Don’t count on a road game against Gonzaga to be the time UNC figures things out. The Bulldogs are hot right now and, as previously mentioned, practically unbeatable in their home gym.

Pick: Gonzaga -10.5 (-110)