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Undefeated No. 6 Ohio State Getting 2.5 Points in Chapel Hill Against No. 7 UNC

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Updated Dec 5, 2022 · 2:04 PM PST

Kaleb Wesson talking to teammates
Kaleb Wesson and undefeated #6 Ohio State travel to North Carolina to play the seventh-ranked Tar Heels. Photo from @OSUHoopsInsider (Twitter).
  • Sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes play first road game this year at the No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels
  • Buckeyes have held every opponent to 57 points or less this season
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

It’s a showdown between two schools expecting to be prominent in the 2020 NCAA Tournament odds all season, as the undefeated and sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0, 0-0 away) visit Chapel Hill to take on the the no. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1, 3-0 home) Wednesday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30pm ET.

The Buckeyes have yet to play a game outside Columbus, while the Tar Heels will be facing another formidable foe in the early part of their schedule.

#6 Ohio State vs #7 North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Over/Under
Ohio State +2.5 (-110) Over 136.0 (-110)
North Carolina -2.5 (-110) Under 136.0 (-110)

Odds taken December 3.

These two teams last played in 2017, so careful while dissecting the Ohio State vs UNC Odds, and Carolina’s 5-0 record ATS in their last five meetings with the Buckeyes. However, Ohio State is also 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Is that a trend that continues this season?

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Buckeyes Doing it With Defense

It’s been a great slate for Ohio State to build their habits on defensively, and they’ve looked really good in the process. They have held all seven opponents this season to 57 points or fewer, while winning each game by double-digits. That suffocating D has already held two opponents to under 20 points in the first half.

The Buckeyes are second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, surrendering just 84.7 points per 100 possessions. Only the defending national champion-Virginia Cavaliers are stingier in that ranking.

On the other end of the floor, the Buckeyes pump in 78.3 points a contest, which has them in a tie for 67th in D1. They have just three players scoring in double figures on the season, however, led by junior Kaleb Wesson, who’s averaging 12.7 points and 9.3 rebounds a game. As a team, Ohio State ranks in the top-20 in three-point shooting, at a 39.7% clip.

Their strength is their depth: Ohio State has no less than seven players logging better than 20 minutes a game, and 10 players in double-digit minutes.

However, the only high-end competition they’ve faced was a 76-51 win over Villanova, at the time ranked 10th in the nation, but has since tumbled to 22nd. Their current KenPom strength of schedule ranking is a lowly 299.

Carolina Already Battle Tested Early

This will be the third straight big test for the Tar Heels already this season, after losing to upstart Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis tourney in the Bahamas. Michigan, as you may have heard, has vaulted all the way to the fourth-ranked team in the nation. North Carolina followed that up with a standout win over the 11th-ranked Oregon Ducks, 78-74.

Freshman big man Armando Bacot broke through against the Ducks, pumping in 23 points to go along with 12 boards, while swatting six shots. He, along with fellow standout frosh Cole Anthony (who leads the team with 20.7 points, while also chipping in 7.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists), are two of four players averaging double-digit scoring figures.

It’s a more top-end look for Roy Williams’ side, with Anthony, forwards Garrison Brooks and guard Brandon Robinson averaging at least 30 minutes a game each, and a pretty set rotation of eight that play 20 or more minutes a night.

They also boast a competitive defense, ranking 18th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve held teams to 66.1 points a game so far this season. That’s helped them as they have scored at a not-so-UNC-like 74.9 points a game, having failed to break the 80-point plateau in a seven-game stretch for the first time since the 1949-50 season.

What’s the Best Bet?

No matter how solid Ohio State’s defense has looked, they’ve played in cozy confines every game so far this season, and there are just a handful of venues that still pose a home court advantage like the Dean Dome. Expect that scoring defense that’s limited teams to just 52.7 points a game on a lowly effective field goal percentage of 38.2% to get inflated in this one. And their 25+ point average margin of victory will take a hit too.

Less-heralded freshman DJ Carton is going to have his hands full in a matchup with Anthony, and that could be the key to this one. Carolina’s home court advantage and their early string of formidable foes should help them get off to a good start and take care of business. While I like them at +2.5, the even better bet is to take the over. Both these teams average into the 70s, and that doesn’t change here.

The pick: OVER 136.0 & North Carolina -2.5 (-110)

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