West Virginia vs Texas Odds, Lines and Spread (Jan. 1)

• Texas is an 8.5-point favorite over West Virginia on Saturday
• West Virginia has won eight in a row, 6-2 ATS
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 17 Texas (10-2) is an 8.5-point favorite over West Virginia in the Big 12 opener for both at noon ET on ESPNU. The Longhorns are 9-1 since losing to Gonzaga in the second game of the season, 4-6 ATS

West Virginia (11-1) has not played in nine days, since an 82-52 home victory over Youngstown State on Dec. 22. Be wary here: Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins told reporters two players Friday that two players are in Covid protocols and will not play. He did not identify the players.

West Virginia vs Texas Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Dec. 31.

The two games between Texas and West Virginia went down to the last possession last season, and both came away with road victories. Longhorns guard Andrew Jones hit a 3-pointer from the right corner with 1.8 seconds remaining for a 72-70 win Morgantown on Jan. 9, 2021.

The Mountaineers overcame a 19-point deficit in the second half and Taz Sherman hit a tie-breaking free throw with 2:27 left and neither scored a field goal thereafter in an 84-82 victory in Austin on Feb. 20, 2021. Jones missed a three-pointer with three seconds remaining.

Both Jones and Sherman are back this season.

Longhorns Mix and Match

Texas coach Chris Beard has used five different starting lineups while attempting to find the right mix between big-name transfers Timmy Allen, Tre Mitchell, Marcus Carr and Dylan Disu and a returning group that includes 2021 double-figure scorers Jones and Courtney Ramey.

Forward 6’6 Allen, an all-Pac12 player at Utah last season, leads the Longhorns in scoring (11.9 points) and rebounding (6.4 boards) and is the only player to have started all 12 games.  UMass transfer forward 6’9 Mitchell (10.9 points, 5.3 rebounds) is second in scoring and rebounding for those who have been active all season.

Minnesota transfer guard 6’2 Carr is averaging 8.6 points and a team-high 3.3 assists while logging a team-high 27.3 minutes, a shade more than holdovers Jones (9.3 points) Ramey (8.3). Ramey played only four minutes in a 68-48 victory over Alabama State on Dec. 22 but had eight points in 24 minutes off the bench in a 78-33 victory over Incarnate Word on Tuesday.

The Longhorns got 14 points, 11 rebounds and five blocked shots from 6’9 Disu off the bench against Incarnate Word, his fourth game since being cleared to play after suffering a knee injury at Vanderbilt last February. Disu has played 12, 16, 17 and 20 minutes and could be in line for more after averaging 15 points and 9.2 rebounds in 17 starts at Vandy before the injury.

Defense on Display

Not surprisingly, given the resumès of coaches Beard and West Virginia’s Bob Huggins, these teams play defense first. Texas is No. 1 in NCAA Division I in scoring defense, giving up an average of 51.3 points per game, and West Virginia is 28th at 59.8.

The Longhorns held seven of their first 12 opponents under 50 points and the Mountaineers have held their last six opponents to less than 60 points, the first time that’s happened since their 2010 Final Four season.

Texas is ranked No. 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom and West Virginia is No. 25. The Longhorns are limiting opponents to 39.1 percent from the field and the Mountaineers are holding foes to 42.1 percent. West Virginia is averaging 5.2 blocked shots per game. Texas is averaging 9.5 steals per.

Still Unranked

The 11-1 Mountaineers remained unranked because, in large part, the AP poll voters have not been persuaded by a non-conference schedule that included four Power 6 opponents and only one true road game. The Mountaineers have beaten UConn, Clemson and Pitt and lost to Marquette.

Texas played only three Power 6 programs in the preseason, losing to Gonzaga and Seton Hall and beating Stanford.

Guards Sherman (10.9 points, 2.8 assists) and Sean McNeil (14.0) points are the Mountaineers’ double-figure scorers. McNeil had 23 points and Sherman had 16 in the victory over Youngstown State the last time out.

Sherman is 13th in Division I in scoring, one of 24 players averaging more than 20 points per game.

By the Numbers

Texas is ranked No. 17 in KenPom adjusted efficiency margin, one of four Big 12 teams — Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech — in the top 20. West Virginia is 42nd, dragged down in part because of a non-conference schedule than ranks in the lower of Division I in degree of difficulty. Texas holds a 13-10 edge in overall series play, but West Virginia has won six of the last 11.

Be cautious until it is determined which West Virginia players are out. When both teams are at full strength, they play more than enough defense to keep this game close.

The pick: West Virginia +8.5 (-110)