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Western Michigan vs Toledo Odds, Spread & Picks (Jan. 6)

George Nassios

by George Nassios in College Basketball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 9:17 PM PST

Boise State Broncos guard RayJ Dennis dribbling
Mar 11, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Boise State Broncos guard RayJ Dennis (10) gestures as he dribbles the ball against the Nevada Wolf Pack during the second half at the Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s the Western Michigan Broncos against the Toledo Rockets on Friday, January 6th
  • Toledo is a huge 14.5-point favorite against their opponents from the MAC
  • See the Western Michigan vs Toledo odds below, plus our best bet and prediction for this game

Nobody is giving Western Michigan (4-10, 4-7 ATS) much of a chance when they travel to Ohio to take on the Toledo Rockets (9-5, 6-6 ATS) in Mid-American Conference action on Friday, January 6th. Tipoff for this matchup from Savage Arena will go at 6:30 pm ET with the Broncos looking for their first road win this season.

After winning the MAC regular season title in each of the last two seasons, Toledo seem to be lagging a bit so far this campaign, but have plenty of time to make a move up the standings. On Friday, Toledo is a 14.5-point favorite with the over/under pegged at 156.5 as both sides look for their first conference win of the season.

Western Michigan vs Toledo Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Western Michigan Broncos +14.5 (-110) +750 O 156.5 (-110)
Toledo Rockets -14.5 (-110) -1430 U 156.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 5th from  Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on this game.

As -1430 moneyline favorites in the college basketball odds, Toledo have an implied win probability of 93.46% to roll over the Broncos in this game. Conversely, handicapped at +750, Western Michigan’s probability is just 11.76% to win this straight up.

 

 

Western Michigan Broncos Betting Trends

Though they started the season with a 2-2 record, giving some cause for optimism, the Broncos are just 2-8 in their last 10 contests.

The offense has been very poor averaging just 68.6 points per game, ranking 255th in the nation. Incredibly, Lamar Norman Jr. accounts for a quarter of that offense, dumping in 17.3 points per outing which ranks among the top 100 players in the country.

The senior has ben slumping a bit of late, but his backcourt mate, Tray Maddox Jr., has picked him up cashing 34 points in his last two games. Other then the two aforementioned seniors, no player on the Broncos averages double digits in points per contest this year.

Away from home, Western Michigan has had zero success this campaign, going 0-7 with four of those seven defeats coming by at least 10 points. Needless to say, they’ll be in tough against the Rockets.

Toledo Rockets Betting Trends

Not only have Toledo had much more success than their Friday evening opponents in the MAC the last few years, they’ve also absolutely owned Western Michigan in the head-to-head matchups.

Western Michigan vs Toledo Recent Results

Date Home-Away Spread Over/Under
02/22/2022 WMU 50 – TOL 92 TOL Under
12/29/2021 TOL 83 – WMU 56 TOL Under
02/27/2021 TOL 91 – WMU 44 TOL Under
01/02/2021 WMU 59 – TOL 70 TOL Under
03/09/2020 TOL 76 – WMU 73 WMU Over

In total, the Rockets have won the last 11 meetings between these two sides. Not only have they collected victories as favorites in those affairs, they’ve also covered the spread as the chalk in eight of the last 10 when they’ve faced one another.

As a small school from a small conference, nobody is betting on Toledo in the odds to win the NCAA tournament, but they better be taking note of their high octane offense.

According to KenPom, at 113.2, the Rockets have the 20th best adjusted offensive efficiency in Division I basketball. Unfortunately, on the other side, the defense has been a punching bag for opponents, ranking 288th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Western Michigan vs Toledo Pick & Prediction

With their frantic style of play combining with outstanding shooting, the Rockets are one of the most exciting teams in the nation to watch.

Leading the way in the attack is catalyst RayJ Dennis who pours in 19.2 points per game to go along with six dimes each time out. Lanky forward, JT Shumate is right behind him averaging 18.8 points giving the Rockets two players who rank in the top 50 in the nation.

Betting the over has been almost a lock, hitting 11 out of 12 times in Toledo games this year. In addition, while it’s a sizable 14.5-point spread, the Rockets have defeated Western Michigan by an average of 38.7 points in their last three meetings.

We like them to get a ton of points, but are a little suspicious of Western Michigan scoring enough to hit the over. Instead, our money prediction is to take Toledo cover as the favorites for the 9th time in 11 meetings against the Broncos.

Pick: Toledo Rockets -14.5 (-110)

 

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