Winthrop vs Villanova Odds and Picks

• No. 5 seed Villanova faces No. 12 seed Winthrop in the last tip-off of Friday’s first-round slate
• Thanks in large part to Villanova’s multiple injuries, Winthrop will be one of the tournament’s trendiest upset picks
• Below, see the odds and best bet for the game

One of the most intriguing first-round games of the 2021 NCAA tournament tips off Friday night at approximately 9:57 pm ET when No. 5 seed Villanova ( 16-6, 11-4) takes on No. 12 seed Winthrop (23-1, 17-1). Both teams had stellar regular seasons, but one is limping into March Madness while the other is still riding the high of having absolutely ripped through its conference tournament.

TNT will have full coverage of the game, which will be the last contest to tip-off on Friday, March 20th. Villanova enters the #12-vs-#5 matchup as a 6.5-point favorite.

Winthrop vs Villanova Odds

Odds as of March 16.

Villanova comes into the NCAA tournament as a No. 5 seed, but the Wildcats aren’t receiving the same type of Final Four/national-title contender talk they were just a few weeks ago. A season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie and an ankle injury to sophomore sharpshooter Justin Moore are the primary reasons why.

Villanova has looked like a shell of its former self without Gillespie and Moore, dropping its regular-season finale at Providence (54-52) and then losing in its first Big East Tournament game to eventual champion Georgetown (72-71). Those injuries and those results are the reason why the team that has won two of the last four NCAA tournaments is suddenly a team most people believe won’t make it out of the first weekend of this year’s Big Dance.

Georgetown just knocked off Villanova in Big East tourney.

Wildcats obviously not even close to the same team without Collin Gillespie. Chris Arcidiacono had played 17 minutes this season before the last two games.

Has played 59 the past two games.

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 11, 2021

Winthrop was one of three undefeated teams remaining in college basketball when they fell at home to UNC Asheville by a bucket on Jan. 29. That remains the only loss of the season for the Eagles, who rolled to the Big South Tournament championship by beating High Point, Longwood, and Campbell by an average of 25.6 points (their narrowest victory was 21). They’re now into the NCAA tournament for the 11th time in program history.

‘Nova Needs to Dictate Pace

Winthrop plays at the 11th-fastest pace in all of college basketball. That presents a bit of a challenge for a Villanova team that not only likes to play much slower — 320th out of 357 D-I teams in tempo — but also doesn’t have the same  backcourt depth that it did a month ago.

The Wildcats have shot just 27.6% from three over their last seven games, so an up-and-down shootout is something they’d like to avoid. Getting out to a nice start where they emphasize their inside advantage should be of paramount importance for Jay Wright. This is a matchup where his team can’t afford to play from behind.

Vaudrin Is a Matchup Nightmare For Villanova

It’s rare to see a 6’7 point guard outside of the power conferences, but Winthrop’s Chandler Vaudrin is the exception. The lefty averages 12.3 points per game while also ranking seventh nationally in assists (6.7 apg) and third in the Big South in rebounds per game (6.8 rpg). Earlier this year, he became just the second player in Big South history to record two triple-doubles in the same season.

Vaudrin would be an issue for virtually every other team in the NCAA tournament, but his presence looms especially large against a Villanova squad that is still adjusting to life without its own starting point guard.

Best Betting Angle

A lot of times, people avoid the trendy first-round upset pick because they assume if everyone has the same idea, it must be too good to be true. This is especially the case when the game in question is one of the infamous #12-vs-#5 matchups.

Most of the time, though, the trendiest upset pick is the trendiest upset pick for good reason. In 2017, the public was so sure that Middle Tennessee was going to “upset” Minnesota that it made the Blue Raiders the betting favorite by tip-off. MTSU won the game by nine. Two years ago, it was hard to find a bracket on the internet that didn’t have 13-seed UC Irvine taking down Kansas State. The Anteaters won by six.

Don’t steer clear of this one just because your neighbor’s sister’s son who is too young to even know how to spell Winthrop is on the Eagles.