2019 Pac-12 Championship Odds: Washington Listed as Slight Favorite over Oregon

• The Washington Huskies are the top Pac-12 team in the odds, but the Oregon Ducks are right behind them
• Oregon is cohesive, experienced and ready to take a swipe at the Pac-12 title and take down Washington
• The Sun Devils had a winning 2018 record and a new defensive structure that could make them a viable sleeper

The first iteration of the 2019 Pac-12 title odds have the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks significantly ahead of the rest of the “pack.”

2019 Pac-12 Title Odds

The Huskies are the defending champions, but no team has repeated as Pac-12 winners since Stanford in 2013.  Can Chris Petersen’s squad break that drought?

Washington’s Soft Schedule Could Be Deciding Factor

From afar, there’s a rebuild in the making for Washington. They are used to waving goodbye to top-tier players to either graduation or the NFL draft. However, they’re having to replace 13 starters, including nine on defense. With that said, they could have depth from new recruits on their d-line and secondary.

They’ve been priming defensive back talent with juniors Keith Taylor,  Elijah Molden, and redshirt freshman Kyler Gordon at the new cornerback positions, but we have yet to see those players succeed on the field, and there’s always more inherent risk in that type of projection.

Peterson will have a new quarterback in Georgia transfer Jason Eason and he should be an upgrade over Jake Browning, who slotted the Huskies in for conference titles but melted on the national stage.

The Huskies’ offensive line is walking into 2019 with experience, which will take the pressure off of the new QB.  On the down side, they’ve lost all-time leading rusher Myles Gaskin, an extremely creative running back. Further, there are gaps in the linebacker and wide receiver positions.

What the Huskies have going for them the most, is their schedule, says Jon Wilner of the Mercury News:

Not sure the Huskies could have ordered up a more favorable conference schedule, what with trips to Tucson, Boulder and Corvallis — all likely non-contenders — constituting 75 percent of their road games. The home lineup, meanwhile, is Utah, Oregon, USC and WSU: Great for the fans, and a division title. The non-conference schedule is a major letdown from ’18.

The question you’re going to have to ask yourself is this: is a proven coach, unproven talent, and a soft schedule be enough to take Washington at these odds, which have an implied probability of 35.7%?

Let’s look at their main competition before answering that question.

Ducks Showing a Versatile Offense and Cohesive Defense

There is a lot of weight on the Ducks’ first game of the season against Auburn, but remember that it won’t directly impact their Pac-12 chances/record.

At a glance, Oregon at +200 looks like the safer and better bet than Washington. They have a level-headed QB in Justin Herbert who chose to stay for is senior season instead of heading to the NFL Draft, where he was poised to be a first-round pick.

Where Herbert lacked was in his completion rate (59.4%). Duck receivers dropped 52 passes in 13 games and they’ve lost Dillon Mitchell, who set a school record with 1,184 receiving yards.

Head coach Mario Cristobal brought in Utah assistant coach Jovon Bouknight to provide a more methodical approach to the receiving corps.

The Ducks offensive line carries with them ample experience and their running game will be better for it. As for their defense, expect a versatile and rock-solid line.

Could There Be Other Contenders Out There?

Here’s the thing with early season previews: you can do all the analysis you want but there is unforeseen depth in lower ranked teams and I would take a hard look at Arizona State (+2500).

#ASU could be a sleeper in the #Pac12 that could end up in the most important poll – the College Football Playoff ranking. #ASUfootball https://t.co/7CI8yqTHkE

— azcentral sports (@azcsports) June 7, 2019

Despite a winning record last season, the Sun Devils have been excluded from polls, but they should be going 2-0 heading into the September 14th game at Michigan State. They crush the Spartans and they are back to being poll worthy.

Additionally, expect a further improvement on their defensive side under the 3-3-5 scheme, Danny Gonzales will employ. They haven’t lost a lot of their starters in this area and they’ve built out a veteran defense that should come out playing strong but most importantly, cohesively.

They have a banger of a running back in Eno Benjamin and he’ll be flanked by a seasoned offensive line. Brandon Aiyuk, their former-JUCO senior receiver is going to be out there proving something and you’ve got slot receiver Kyle Williams standing like a rock-solid blocker.

Your sleeper bet is with the Sun Devils and the more lucrative bet in the top-ranked is going to be Oregon. Lean on experience over theory.