FCS Semifinal James Madison vs Sam Houston State Odds, Spread and Picks

• No. 1 James Madison visits No. 4 Sam Houston State in the FCS Semifinal on Saturday, May 8th
• The Dukes beat the Bearkats 65-7 when these two teams last met in the 2016 quarterfinals
• Read below for the odds, spread and betting pick

A trip to Frisco is on the line when James Madison (7-0) and Sam Houston State (8-0) clash in the FCS semifinals on Saturday, May 8th (2:30 PM EST). The Dukes are being listed as small road favorites at Bowers Stadium.

JMU had their way with North Dakota in the semifinals, while SHSU upset reigning National champions North Dakota State. When these two programs met in the 2016 FCS quarterfinals, the Dukes dominated in a 65-7 victory.

Will James Madison run over Sam Houston State once again and return to the title game, or do the Bearkats offer value to pull off the upset?

James Madison vs  Sam Houston State Odds

Odds as of May 6th 

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Dukes Are Catching Fire 

James Madison is playing its best football of the season after playing some close games against inferior opponents early in the year. The Dukes have recorded 30-plus points in consecutive playoff wins over VMI and UND and rank fourth in the country in total defense.

QB Cole Johnson had his best game yet against the Fighting Hawks, throwing for 251 yards and two TDs with no picks.

Great throw. Great catch. Really great effort. Cole and Antwane with the 🏠 call.

📺 ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/D7NWM4d4Ff

— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) May 3, 2021

James Madison’s passing attack has been getting the job done, but it’s their rushing attack that makes their offense so dynamic and well-balanced. Senior Percy Agyei-Obese leads the way on the ground and has reached the 100-yard mark in consecutive playoff games. The Dukes proved with 468 yards of offense against UND that they can win games both through the air and on the ground.

James Madison is looking to return to FCS supremacy after losing to North Dakota State in a close title game last year. The Dukes have made the semifinals in four of the past five seasons, but haven’t won a championship since 2018. If the past few games are any indication, James Madison looks like a team ready to take backs its crown.

Bearkats’ Offense’ Aims to Keep Rolling

While James Madison comes into the FCS semifinals with a well-balanced offense, Sam Houston State features one of the top-10 offensive units in the entire country. The Bearkats are averaging almost 40 points per game and are coming off a huge 24-20 victory over NDSU. SHSU got another big performance from QB Eric Schmid and the defense didn’t allow a single touchdown to NDSU’s offense.

IFE ADEYI WITH A SPECTACULAR CATCH ON THIRD AND TEN!! #EatEmUpKats

📺 https://t.co/4x869xSQbX
📊 https://t.co/MI7t2JvgPM
📻 KSAM 101.7 FM pic.twitter.com/e2yw6AX20S

— Sam Houston Football (@BearkatsFB) May 2, 2021

Schmid went off for 227 yards and a touchdown against the Bison, but the Bearkats’ rushing offense was limited to only 101 yards on 30 carries. James Madison is only allowing 66 rushing yards per game, which means it’ll likely be up to Schmid and the passing attack to have another big day. SHSU’s junior pivot has a lethal arm, but he’s thrown seven picks to go with 16 TDs.

Sam Houston State has an elite rushing defense (68.9 YPG) like JMU and does an excellent job at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Bearkats rank third in the country with 32 sacks and will look to create havoc for the redshirt senior Johnson. Considering how good both teams are in the trenches, Sam Houston can win this game by opening things up and getting Schmid to make big passing plays.

What’s the Best Bet?

This spread favors JMU, and their pedigree is hard to ignore, but this matchup is virtually a pick’em given how well the Bearkats have played all season. K. C. Keeler’s team is beaming with confidence after taking down a North Dakota State program that had reached the semifinals in every single season since 2010.

While Sam Houston has been on a great run, the smart money is on it coming to an end at the hands of JMU Saturday. This is not the Bison team of years past and freshman QB Cam Miller didn’t post much of a threat in the passing game. The Bearkats are still allowing 278 passing yards per game on the year and got lit up by some of the top offenses in the Southland during the regular season.

James Madison just does everything a bit better than Sam Houston and have been in this spot numerous times. The Bearkats have lost three straight semifinals dating back to 2014 and are facing a JMU QB with five years experience. Bet on JMU’s defense to hold up and the team’s well-balanced offense to breakthrough against Sam Houston’s vulnerable defense.

• Pick: James Madison -1.5 (-110)

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