Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread
- Week 11 features another full dose of conference-deciding games
- Ranked teams meet when TCU visits Texas, UCF visits Tulane and Ole Miss visits Bama
- Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 11 of the college football season
Week 11 features games that could go a long way toward settling regular-season championships in the Big 12 and American. No. 4 TCU (9-0, 6-0) visits No. 18 Texas (6-3, 4-2) and No. 17 Tulane (8-1, 5-0) plays host to No. 22 UCF (7-2, 4-1). Each could be a preview of conference title games on Dec. 3.
The SEC West again has two more crucial games — No. 7 LSU (7-2, 5-1) visits Arkansas (5-4, 2-3) to remain in at least a tie for the division lead, while No. 9 Alabama (7-2, 4-2) plays host to No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1, 4-1) in what could be considered a CFP Final Four elimination game.
Here are CFB betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 11.
UCF vs Tulane Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF Knights | +2 (-112) | +112 | Over 52.5 (-108) |
| Tulane Green Wave | -2 (-108) | -134 | Under 52.5 (-112) |
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Nov. 9.
ATS Pick #1: Tulane (-2) vs UCF
One-loss Tulane is 8-1 ATS, the best figure in Division 1. That is a big deal this late in the season.
Three schools are in the CFP rankings for the first time ever 👏
🔹 No. 16 Illinois
🔹 No. 19 Tulane
🔹 No. 23 Oregon State pic.twitter.com/yAZdJgeARQ— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 2, 2022
In a pass-happy conference, Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt flies a bit under the radar. He is ninth in the American with 1,843 passing and 230.4 passing yards per game and is seventh with 14 touchdown passes. At the same time, Pratt is third in completion percentage (67.5) and first in passing efficiency and fewest interceptions. All he does it win.
Tulane failed to cover as a 12-point favorite in a 24-21 loss to Southern Miss one week after its biggest win of the season, a 17-10 victory at Kansas State. The Green Wave rebound with a 27-24 overtime victory at Houston the following, cementing the belief born in Kansas State game, and has won the last four by at least 10 points.
What a grab from Javon Baker!!😱#AmericanFB x @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/1YTWLDMyWy
— American Football (@American_FB) November 5, 2022
Tulane and UCF are two of the top four rushing teams in the American, and the Green Wave had 357 rushing yards in a 27-13 victory over Tulsa. The Green Wave leads the AAC in total defense and scoring defense, just ahead of UCF in both categories.
UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee’s status is a big factor here. Plumlee missed the 35-28 win at the Memphis game after suffering a concussion against Cincinnati. Mikey Keene, last year’s starter, took over in the 25-21 win over the Bearcats and threw for 219 yards with three touchdowns last week, when RJ Harvey rushed for 151 yards. Keene is not the same two-way threat as Plumlkee, though.
The winner here has the best shot of hosting the league title game. Tulane is 1-5 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, all as an underdog. Four of those games were played in Orlando.
- Pick: Tulane -2 (-108)
TCU vs Texas Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs | +7 (-110) | +195 | Over 65 (-109) |
| Texas Longhorns | -7 (-110) | -245 | Under 65 (-112) |
Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Nov. 7.
ATS Pick #2: TCU (+7) vs Texas
Undefeated TCU is 7-1-1 ATS, tied for the second-best figure in Division. I. That is a big deal this late in the season.
🚨NEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS🚨 pic.twitter.com/Yb1hmNTkkx
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 9, 2022
The Horned Frogs are tied for third in Division I in scoring (43.1 points per game) and are fourth in total offense (508.7 yards per game) behind quarterback Max Duggan, who has taken to new coach Sonny Dykes wide-open attack like a frog to water. Duggan has completed 66 percent of his passes for 2,407 yards, 24 touchdowns and two interceptions. He ranks No. 4 in passing efficiency. The Horned Frogs have a 1,000-yard rusher in Kendre Miller
Texas has won four of five behind running back Bijan Robinson, who is fifth in Division I with 1,129 yards rushing and has 12 touchdowns, as does Miller. Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns are 3-1 since quarterback Quinn Ewers’ return, although he has been up and down. He threw three picks in a 41-34 loss to Oklahoma State, a team TCU beat 43-40 in overtime (the only game it did not cover as a 3.5-point favorite.)
Bijan Robinson vs Kansas State:
• 30 carries
• 209 yards
• 1 TD
• 34 receiving yardsThe Longhorns RB is making quite the case for the Heisman 👀🏆 pic.twitter.com/so3ubhcs0p
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) November 6, 2022
TCU is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight against the Longhorns, 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five in Austin.
- Pick: TCU +7 (-110)
Wisconsin vs Iowa Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin Badgers | -1 (-110) | -115 | Over 35.5 (-113) |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | +1 (-110) | -106 | Under 35.5 (-108) |
Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Nov. 7.
ATS Pick #3: Wisconsin (-1) vs Iowa
How wide open is the Big Ten West? One of these three-conference-loss teams will position itself as a contender with Illinois for the Big Ten championship game. Both teams are 5-4 overall, 3-3 in the league, and have won their last two.
Kaleb Johnson: 151 rush yards after contact vs Purdue
Led all Power Five RBs from Week 10🌽 pic.twitter.com/8svnPJxTRN
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 8, 2022
The 35.5-point total tells the story. Neither team moves the ball with authority, neither has a big-play quarterback, and each relies on a well-prepared, physical defense. The Hawkeyes are averaging 17.1 points and 262.8 yards per game, in the bottom six in Division 1 in both categories, although Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson broke through with 200 yards rushing in a 24-3 victory over Purdue the last time out.
Wisconsin has scored at least three touchdowns per game while going 3-1 under interim coach Jim Leonhard. Iowa is giving up only 14.3 points and 264.4 yards per, among Division I’s best, but that can be a function of an opponent doing just what is necessary against a team without much offensive firepower.
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last against Iowa and in its last six at Iowa.
- Pick: Wisconsin -1 (-110)
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
