Alabama vs LSU Point Spread Down to -5.5 Despite Tua Tagovailoa Looking Likely to Play
- #2 Alabama opened as a 6.0-point favorite over #1 LSU in Saturday’s Game of the Century (Nov. 9, 7:00 PM ET)
- There’s a good chance Crimson Tide star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plays after undergoing ankle surgery just a few weeks ago
- The spread has moved a half-point in favor of the Tigers, nonetheless
The Game of the Century is only a few days away and there is still no definitive word on the status Alabama star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Saban says QB “Tua (Tagovailoa) has worked hard to be able to play in the game” but maintained he’s still a game-time decision against LSU.
— Alex Byington (@_AlexByington) November 7, 2019
The junior pivot, who underwent ankle surgery on October 20th, is still a game-time decision, but head coach Nick Saban did tell ESPN there’s a good chance he’ll play Saturday against LSU. Despite the positive report, books have adjusted their opening number from last week, and the Tigers are now laying only 5.5 in the LSU vs Alabama odds.
#1 LSU vs #2 Alabama Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU Tigers | +5.5 (-105) | +190 | Over 63.0 (-110) |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -5.5 (-115) | -220 | Under 63.0 (-110) |
*Odds taken Nov. 6
The total has also come down a full point from 64.0 to 63.0.
Tagovailoa on Track
According to Saban, Tagovailoa’s looked so good in practice this week you’d never know he was hurt. Of course, it’s impossible to replicate game action and everything changes when a 300-pound lineman is bearing down on you, but so far he’s experienced no swelling or soreness in his ankle.
WATCH: Moments ago, #Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa at practice jogging, planting on wrapped right leg, and making throws. Nick Saban said he will be on snap count at practice and game time decision for Saturday. #RollTide #LSU @CBS_42 pic.twitter.com/OnVinJcff3
— Simone Eli (@SimoneEli_TV) November 4, 2019
Another factor working in his favor is that the injury was not to his plant foot, which should eliminate the timidness he showed last season after surgery on his left ankle. He’s been rehabbing very aggressively and, unless he experiences a major setback in the next few days, he should get a crack at beating LSU for the second consecutive year.
Backup Plan
If Tagovailoa is unable to go Saturday for any reason, Bama’s prospects shouldn’t take too drastic a hit with Mac Jones under center. The sophomore QB has been excellent in relief of Tagovailoa, and shined versus Arkansas last time out. He completed 82% of his throws versus the Razorbacks for 235 yards and three touchdowns. He had a passer rating of 216.5 and, most importantly, he didn’t commit any turnovers.
Mac Jones to Jerry Jeudy again!
That’s Mac Jones 3rd Touchdown ? pic.twitter.com/QiuC8taIqY
— Alabama DieHards (@AlabamaDieHards) October 27, 2019
He’s obviously not the same class of player that Tagovailoa is, but Saban has won with far less talented options in the past. Jones is more than capable of getting the ball to Bama’s elite playmakers and has led the Tide to scoring drives on 50% of their possessions.
Where Does the Line Go From Here
Assuming no news surfaces prior to game time about Tagovailoa’s status, this line will likely stay at 5.5. Most bettors assume that he’ll be starting on Saturday, but at something less than 100%.
If Tagovailoa is announced the starter in the coming days, the line could potentially move back in the Tide’s favor, but you have to think the sharp money would pounce on the Tigers if it reached a touchdown. Don’t forget LSU, not Alabama, is ranked number one, and getting 7-points with the best team in the nation would be too good for most to pass up.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
